Outside Line: No pressure George Russell but you have to win the Canadian Grand Prix
F1 Grand PrixFriday, 22 May 2026 at 14:43
The stop start 2026 Formula 1 season is annoying because, just as we're getting into things, we have these huge breaks. So, heading to Canada, it's worth doing a little rewind on where the season is at so we can preview Round 5, aka the Canadian Grand Prix, this weekend in Montreal.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli, the youngest driver on the grid, historically leads the Formula 1 World Championship. While the 19-year-old Italian, showed his pedigree late last year when he resurrected his rookie season, he has taken it a step further this year.
Playing second fiddle to preseason 2026 F1 title favourite teammate George Russell at the opener in Australia set the tone for what many believed would be the rest of the season: Russell winning races and winning the title, chased by his teammate.
But Antonelli decided that was not a script he was going to adhere to. He ripped it up and subsequently went on to win the next three races on the trot, putting him 20 points ahead of Russell and way ahead of the next challengers.
Now the Brit-led pre-Montreal hype is that Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is Russell's track. After all, last year he was on pole and he won here, and the spin doctors in the English media predict with confidence: It's just obvious that he's going to win this one.
But I'm not so sure. Antonelli might tear up that script too, and I sincerely hope he does, because George is ignoring screeching wake-up calls.
His teammate struggles off the line, so far the only dud in Kimi's substantial arsenal. But the fact that he drops positions at starts, yet recovers to win and beat George in the process, suggests that if the Italian can nail getting off the line, no one will see the kid until the end of the race.
Alarm bells ringing for George Russell
George has had three alarms now that he's ignored, even proffering excuses that he's not into tracks like Miami because they're slippery. Seriously, get a grip on yourself. You've got to drive on what you get because your teammate is now the benchmark, not you. You're chasing. You have to win; if you don't, Kimi might.
So enough talk and let's see what he can deliver.
The 'smart' money is on George winning it. I'm going to be the 'dumb' money and bet on Antonelli, because he simply has nothing to lose. He has had nothing to lose in the last four races. He was expected to be beaten comprehensively by Russell, much like last year, but that has not been the case three times out of four.
So there we go with a prediction: Kimi beats George this weekend again. Whether they win, that's another story.
Second in the Constructors' standings are Ferrari, but are they really the second-best team at the moment? I venture not. Charles Leclerc still owns Lewis Hamilton, and while the seven-time F1 World Champion hogs headlines, the reality is he needs to start beating Charles Leclerc regularly.
Lewis told all that he's going to be in Formula 1 for a long time. It might not be his choice if he doesn't start hammering Leclerc on a regular basis, and if the car is good enough, he should do so to be the numero uno at Maranello.
Yet despite all this, as for an outside chance, paradoxically maybe a win is on the cards.
Eighth win for Lewis Hamilton?
It would be a remarkable thing if Hamilton could win for the eighth time in Montreal. It's unprecedented. At the moment he's tied on seven with Schumacher, but another victory in Canada on current form? You never know. Île Notre Dame's microclimate has too often thrown a spanner into the works.
It can throw up a lot of unknowns, which could play into Hamilton's hands or Leclerc's. Hence, Lewis has to get a move on and beat his teammate. Honestly, I don't see Ferrari being the team to challenge Mercedes.
I'd say it's McLaren with Mercedes power. There's nowhere to hide for the reigning F1 world champions after their yukky start to this campaign. But they did come out of hiding in Miami and probably should have won that race. They should have won that one, which suggests that they could be the team to beat in Canada.
No one knows how these putrid new engines are going to handle Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. The late great Canadian would no doubt be shuddering in his grave if he saw where Formula 1 power units have evolved into: a rabbit hole of no return. I digress.
Preseason, I believed Oscar Piastri would get the better of Lando Norris, but it's still touch and go between the two. In fact, Norris is now ahead of Piastri in the standings, but the Aussie has had some terrible luck, and one would hope that he can find the superiority in the team that he enjoyed this time last year.
But credit to Norris. P2 in Miami and annoyed that it wasn't P1, suggests that the world champion is itching for a fight and eager to score his first victory of the season. If their trajectory continues to be upwardly mobile, and the evidence from Miami is anything to go by, McLaren might be the team to beat this time out.
What about Max Verstappen?
Beyond that, of course, there's Red Bull and Max Verstappen. The Dutchman's Nürburgring exploits have been well and truly documented, and now it's back to Formula 1 reality. He can never be discounted, that is certain.
Winner here in 2022, 2023 and 2024. However, Red Bull has stumbled with this RB22, and if Max is struggling, be sure the guy in the other car is struggling too.
Isack Hadjar needs to make amends for the self-inflicted error at the Miami Grand Prix. Chasing Verstappen is an almost impossible task, and right now it's inevitable that we are seeing the young likeable Frenchman going the route of Max's previous teammates.
He and Red Bull need to find a way to get him closer to the front without breaking stuff.
Will Verstappen win with the car they had in Miami? For sure not. Let's see what they could muster since Miami, in terms of upgrades, if they have any, for Montreal.
As for the insignificants, Alpine are enjoying their first season with Mercedes power. Clearly a decent chassis has allowed Pierre Gasly to be in the points in all four races and in a far better place than they were last year when they finished last in the championship.
Expect Gasly again to find himself in the top ten, while Colapinto showed what he's capable of in Miami, but the Argentine now needs to put down consistent results. After all, he's a sophomore, much like Antonelli, so he needs to be closer to Gasly, beating him more often and finishing races. One good result does not make a Formula 1 driver.
Shout out to Ollie Bearman
If there's another young driver impressing, it has to be Ollie Bearman, who, much like Antonelli, is getting the better of his vastly more experienced teammate, in this case Esteban Ocon. So much so that the Frenchman's future with the team is being questioned. He has denied the reports, but he cannot deny that he has to up his game substantially to keep that seat his.
Bearman, on the other hand, has had a couple of DNFs after two good showings in Australia and China. In Japan he was the victim of that crazy PU "lift and coast" crash, and he didn't score in Miami. He'll be looking for a good result.
While Ocon has to stop chasing and become the chased But it's hard to see that happening with the current form he's enjoying.
The Racing Bulls with Arvid Lindblad and Liam Lawson have been pretty much anonymous, with the Kiwi getting the better of the rookie so far, but it's close.
Anonymous too, but also glaringly out of contention, are Williams, who have done their drivers, Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon, absolutely no favours with this brick that is the FW48.
Granted, relatively speaking, Miami was good for them with a double points finish, but in Canada we'll really see if that's a result that flattered them. The reality is, for a team who finished P5 last year, this is a dramatic fall.
Expecting the worst but hoping for the best
As for Audi, Cadillac and Aston Martin, three total sh!t shows that are not even worth previewing. They will not play a role in this Grand Prix, or any this season for that matter, unless it is for deploying safety cars to extract a stricken Cadillac, Audi or Aston Martin.
It's just a sad state of affairs that a third of the field are actually Formula 1.5, and really, in terms of meritocracy and the global pecking order of racing teams in the world, they have no place in Formula 1. They really need to get their acts together and stop with the BS excuses.
Last but not least, they do have a place in Formula 1, but not in their current clownish guise, Aston Martin. The only question to be asked is when will they start racing, and what the hell is Adrian Newey doing to sort out this problem?
If anything is newsworthy out of Aston Martin, it is the eternal patience of Fernando Alonso or, for the more sadistic, when will Lance Stroll beat the Spaniard in qualifying again? It's a whopping 40-0 right now!
Historically, the Canadian Grand Prix has provided some banger races, very much so when the weather gets tricky. It'll also be interesting to see how the new power units tackle the point and squirt nature of the Montreal circuit.
In closing, I have to admit it's hard not to feel underwhelmed with Formula 1 right now despite the long pause, because it is inevitable that this Grand Prix will be compromised by a visionless set of rules dictating the 2026 F1 power units. I watch Montreal with trepidation, expecting the worst but hoping for the best.
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