Outside Line: Red Bull planning to withdraw as a Formula 1 constructor ahead of full Ford takeover?

Now, in the wake of Gianpiero Lambiase being informed he will be heading to McLaren at the end of 2027, it's another big gun that has departed the once mighty Red Bull Racing team.

Reasons aside, the reality is, in a handful of years, they've lost Christian Horner, they've lost Rob Marshall, Adrian Newey, Jonathan Wheatley, Helmut Marko and Lambiase at the end of 2027. These are the huge names. Add to that, the essential but off-the-radar staff that also defected. The backbone of the team Dietrich built is no longer.

Since the death of Mateschitz, the billionaire who lived his dream of racing by creating a motorsport empire, make that an extreme sporting empire second to none. Clearly, a man driven by passion for high-adrenalin, death-defying sports.

With a passion for motorsport, no surprise he found the allure of Formula 1 too much to ignore and lived his dream by building Red Bull Racing at first, and then Toro Rosso, which has now morphed into Racing Bulls.

In retrospect, since his passing, Red Bull began falling apart. That’s when the glue that stuck the whole operation together was no longer there. What we saw in the aftermath of the passing of the Red Bull patriarch was an absolute revolution seldom seen in big teams. It exploded.

Along with the above-mentioned, this does not seem like a team that wants to build into the future, because it seems increasingly clear that their greatest asset, Max Verstappen, won’t be there when his contract ends at the end of 2028.

This year's car and absurd Formula 1 rules have done little to keep Max enamoured with the sport at the highest level. There’s no doubt an escape clause should performance not meet the requirements of the four-time world champion. Who knows if he does not walk before that?

No matter how you look at it, there are a bunch of questionable red flags here. Top question: Are Red Bull winding down as a constructor in Formula 1?

After all, building high-end race cars is not their core business. That was a spin-off, sold to Red Bull via Dietrich Mateschitz by Christian Horner back in 2004 when he sold the concept to the billionaire. The youngest Formula team principal ever, at the time,  brought along the experience of David Coulthard, Mark Webber, and the biggest fish, no doubt, bringing Adrian Newey.

The dream became a reality. History was made. A legendary Formula 1 team was born from the ashes of what was the abortive Jaguar project, owned by... You guessed it, Ford!

History shows that what transpired were two spells of incredible domination, first with Sebastian Vettel and now, more recently, with Max Verstappen.

But let’s be honest, even with Laurent Mekies seeming to be doing a good job, although his technical team have dropped the ball on this one. Perhaps too many resources were put into the last campaign, a feverish last-ditch push to deny Lando Norris the title.

Thank you. Admirable, but in retrospect, it may be costing them big time now, because the Red Bull RB22 is not a good car. Looking a couple of months down on development. Do the maths.

So what if Red Bull pulls out? Well, of course, I don’t imagine them just pulling out totally. After all, they have pumped upward of $5-billion since the dream became reality back when Red Bull made their debut at the 2005 Australian Grand Prix.

They are still too involved with motorsports and extreme sports. Formula 1 as a brand is a fantastic opportunity for them, as it ticks every box for the image. But do Red Bull GmbH really want to be managing racing teams and everything that comes with that? Two of them.

These are marketing and advertising people who know how to market fizzy drinks probably better than anyone in the world, and their investment in extreme sports beyond Formula 1 is admirable. It is amazing. It actually created a whole industry from sports that were largely maligned before Red Bull put them on the map, in style.

But these days, it appears within Red Bull's holding company, away from the team, they don’t seem to have the aptitude, or perhaps even the interest, in running a Formula 1 team. Compared to when their founder was alive.

So rather than dismantle Red Bull Racing and Racing Bulls, the logical best thing to do is hand the keys over to Ford: "Say it’s all your baby. We will sponsor the project, and we will take it from there."

And if Ford doesn’t work out, Red Bull, with association, for instance, with Max, can follow him to any team he ends up with, or series, for that matter. It gives them freedom to operate unrestricted in an area of their core expertise.

It also provides Ford with an independent platform, devoid of being more than a branding exercise. Rather a practical, technical onslaught of Formula 1 by a pedigreed manufacturer.  For now, Ford seem to be a bystander watching things progress. I’m not quite sure what’s happening.

I’ve asked around, no one seems to know. And with these kinds of things, you will only know when they announce it, but I do sense a shifting of interest from Red Bull’s core business and their leaders towards a more tempered involvement in Formula 1, without having to own a piece of it.

It’s a very volatile market at the moment in Formula 1, and I do believe more big-name heads will roll as responsibility for failure to lead teams into this new era comes into focus. Teams that have dropped the ball big time, starting with the state of preparedness, supposedly by the best racing teams in the world. Williams, Audi, and Cadillac spring to mind. Let’s not talk about Aston Martin either.

You can add Red Bull to that list. Not even the magnificence of Verstappen can salvage what is probably the worst car the RBR factory have produced. And an unhappy Max brandishing your brand is sexy when he is winning, but when he is nowhere, complaining, questioning the sport, it's not going to help sell their fizzy cans. 

In a nutshell, for me, the writing is on the wall. I see Red Bull gradually pulling out as a constructor, focusing on sponsorship, with Ford taking up the Formula 1 project. Perhaps even with Horner back in charge, it would be smart and not impossible should the stars align.

Timeline? End of 2028 when Max walks, I would bet Red Bull disengages as a F1 constructor and focus on sponsorship. Watch this space!

For the record, Red Bull Racing is owned by Red Bull GmbH. Following Dietrich Mateschitz’s death in 2022, his son, Mark took over the 49% stake split with Thai billionaire Chalerm Yoovidhya, owning the other 51%.