Max Verstappen exit would cost him $300-million and hit Formula 1 revenues by $100-million

Amid growing speculation about Verstappen’s future, the broader economic consequences of his potential exit underline just how central he is to the modern Formula 1 ecosystem, both on track and commercially.

Speaking to OLBG, Professor Wilson, Professor of Applied Sport Finance at University Campus of Football Business in London, outlined the scale of Verstappen’s current earnings and what would be lost if he stepped away prematurely

The Professor said: “Max Verstappen himself is one of the most paid athletes in global sport. His Red Bull deal is worth $60-million per year as a basic package. That deal then has performance incentive bonuses which could push his total annual earnings closer to the $100-million mark.

"If Verstappen walked away from F1 with two years left on his current Red Bull deal, then we’re realistically seeing him forfeit between $200-million and $250-million total earnings if you include the salary bonuses and performance incentives.”

Beyond salary, Wilson pointed to Verstappen’s substantial endorsement portfolio as a key component of the financial equation: “Then we’d need to layer in his endorsements. His personal sponsorship income sits at $25-million annually but at peak dominance, it's natural that number climbs much higher to $50-million given his global profile albeit Verstappen isn’t having a good start to his season.

“If Verstappen leaves F1, we wouldn’t see his endorsement value disappear overnight. It will compress though and he would likely lose half of his sponsorship earnings overtime without that weekly F1 global exposure.”

He quantified the overall financial impact bluntly: “All in all, Verstappen would lose $300-million and that’s not including the long-term effects of staying visible at the top of the sport.”

Wilson also stressed Formula 1’s role as a global amplifier for elite drivers: “From a brand perspective, F1 is the ultimate amplifier for someone like Max. A 20-plus race calendar around the globe, millions of viewers and constant media coverage.

"Without that, his commercial value doesn’t vanish but it becomes more niched and nuanced so perhaps more motorsport focused, less global superstar which you would consider him at the moment.”

The financial fallout would not be limited to Verstappen alone. Wilson highlighted the direct impact his absence would have on Formula 1’s commercial engine: “From an F1 perspective, Max isn’t just another F1 driver, he’s the defining athlete of the current era.

"His performances on the track have driven viewership, especially in key European markets where he has a massive following. He plays a major role in the sport’s narrative.

“F1 revenues themselves are about $3-billion annually. That is driven by media rights and venue hosting fees. Verstappen materially contributes to that ecosystem because he influences audience demand and engagement in F1.”

Wilson explained that even a marginal drop in engagement carries a major financial consequence: “At the top end, losing Verstappen would shave a few percentage points off global viewership and commercial appeal. A small impact on a multi-billion dollar business shaves off at least $100m in annual value.

“That’s before you factor in star power and the glitter Verstappen puts in on the track, the stories and the narrative. That’s much harder to price but it’s hugely important, it would depend on additional rivalries that appear on track.”

Despite the warning, Wilson concluded that Formula 1’s depth of talent would eventually absorb the loss: “With that being said, despite Verstappen being one of F1’s most important assets, where one leaves, another one will step in to replace him.”

For now, Verstappen remains central to Formula 1’s commercial and competitive landscape, but the numbers underline just how costly an early exit would be for both driver and sport, not to mention his army of fans around the globe.