Pinpointing the Exact Moment the Last Two Formula 1 World Championships Were Decided

Kimi Antonelli has taken it, back-to-back victories in China and Japan making him the youngest championship leader in the sport's history, nine points clear of George Russell, the man every pre-season odds maker had already quietly coronated.

Russell was the clear, odds-on favorite to win the title before the curtain raiser in Australia. When he duly claimed the chequered flag in Melbourne as expected, those odds shortened even further. Now, however, following his teenage teammates' surge, a leading online casino and sportsbook in Canada prices him at even money. Still the favorite, but no longer worthy of odds-on status.

And to make matters worse, odds on Antonelli claiming the crown have been slashed from 7/2 all the way down to 11/10.  But here's the thing about momentum in Formula 1: it means nothing until it survives the moment that tests it.

Not the final race. Not even the penultimate round. That one defining moment in a season where everything changes.

The first three quarters of the 2025 season belonged to Oscar Piastri. The Australian ace was expected to play a backup role in the coronation of more experienced teammate Lando Norris, much like Antonelli to Russell this term. Also like this term, the younger man wasn't content with simply playing second fiddle.

A flurry of wins throughout the first half of the season gave Piastri a shock championship lead. However, it was his win in the Netherlands coupled with Norris' retirement that seemingly saw the Aussie put one hand on the title. Then, disaster struck.

A disappointing qualifying in Azerbaijan saw Piastri qualify down in ninth place. But things would go from bad to worse on race day.

The championship leader shockingly jumped the start, triggered the anti-stall, felt the front-end wash wide into Turn 5 and in the fraction of a second before the barriers arrived, 34 races of near-perfection ended.

Gone. His own assessment afterwards was understated to the point of dark comedy: "certainly not my finest moment." But what happened next was no laughing matter.

What followed Baku was five rounds of purgatory for Piastri, not one podium, while Norris and Verstappen systematically devoured every point of lead he'd assembled.

Norris inherited the championship lead after back-to-back wins in Mexico and Brazil, and the title fight that should have been resolved weeks before Abu Dhabi in Piastri's favor was instead alive on the final weekend.

The Aussie was no longer in the box seat, suddenly third behind the rampant Norris and relentless Verstappen, and it would be the Brit who kept his cool, securing the third place he needed to seal the crown. For Piastri, it was a case of what could — or maybe should — have been,

Halfway through the 2024 season, Lando Norris finally found himself in the position he'd always dreamed of. The fastest car in the paddock, the form of his life, Verstappen's stranglehold visibly loosening for the first time in two seasons.

The Hungaroring was meant to be the statement weekend — McLaren locked out the front row, Norris on pole, Piastri two hundredths behind, the entire team pointed in the right direction, and the Brit's maiden title challenge was set to gather steam.

And then teammate Piastri overtook Norris into Turn One. The audacious move scuppered the young Brit's hopes almost immediately. But things would get progressively worse as the race went on.

McLaren handed Norris a favorable pit stop in a bid to avoid being undercut by Verstappen. The move worked so well that Norris would ultimately undercut his teammate and take the lead of the race. And then, shockingly, the radio crackled, and the new race leader was told to cede first place to Piastri, due to said aforementioned favorable pitstop.

Let's be clear about what happened here: Norris argued. Loudly. His reluctance was not diplomatic or coded — it was visceral, the sound of a driver who knew that yielding his own best opportunity of the year was being framed as a pre-agreed strategic framework. He complied eventually, begrudgingly, and Piastri took his maiden Formula 1 victory.

Verstappen sat behind quietly, absorbed the chaos without panic, and retained his championship lead. He did what the very best do in those moments — nothing. He didn't need to. He knew full well that this wasn't how a Formula One World Championship was won.

He'd done it three times himself already, and McLaren's internal struggle in coming to terms with the rocket-ship they'd built allowed Super Max to waltz his way to a fourth.

Norris never truly closed the gap again, making mistakes on a regular basis with teammate Piastri all over him at all times. Verstappen wrapped up his fourth consecutive title with time to spare, a blistering drive from the back of the grid in Brazil — while Norris was on pole no less — sealing the deal.