Kimi Antonelli is in the box seat for what’s set to be an extremely wet, unpredictable Miami Grand Prix. Formula 1 fans everywhere will be hoping it’s not a washout like the Sprint!
Having lost places yet again off the Sprint start, Antonelli went into qualifying on the back foot. But he
bounced back brilliantly, showing incredible pace at the circuit where he earned his first Sprint pole last year—replicating the feat, only this time in the main event.
With Max Verstappen alongside him on the front row, the young Italian says he’ll need a “magic start” to the Grand Prix. The weather won’t do him any favors either. There are storm warnings in place, so the track will be slippery. At least he’s not facing the mist from further back!
Having dominated the Sprint, McLaren will be asking themselves how they fell so far in qualifying. Lando Norris is P4, Oscar Piastri starts P7. Likewise, Ferrari will be disappointed Red Bull “out-macarena’d” them with a new rear wing. Charles Leclerc is likely a threat off the line from P3, a lackluster Lewis Hamilton is back in P6.
For fans, the upshot is a nice surprise: a four-team fight. Given that the Sprint was an
absolute snore-fest, it seems the weather might come to the rescue. We’ve lucked out. Instead of a battery-powered procession, this should get pretty tasty.
Turbulent qualifying tees up a fun race
After a diabolical Sprint in which drivers struggled to even recreate the yo-yo passing seen in the opening rounds, it seemed like the race would be Monaco lite. All the boredom, only with none of the glitz, glamour, and history that makes racing in the principality worthwhile.
However, a change in qualifying conditions dramatically shook up the order. Hotter, gustier conditions threw off McLaren, who had dominated just a few hours earlier. Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull each took advantage of the opportunity to change setup between sessions, unlocking a chunk of pace to tee up a tantalizing race.
All the talk heading to Miami was about how
battery deployment changes would improve the racing spectacle. In reality, it was arguably worse. Formula 2 cars were absolutely sending it into T17 in the support race, but this excitement wasn’t really emulated in the Sprint.
Fortunately for FOM, who are still clinging to the idea that fans are enjoying this season’s “racing,” the weather has come to their rescue. F1’s "big four" are all back in the hunt. As always, rain is the great equalizer. The cream rises to the top in wet conditions. Even in the Duracell championship, it should be fun to watch.
Upsets and unreliability in the midfield
Alpine have made a strong start to 2026. Their new Mercedes engine has fired them to the front of the midfield, with Pierre Gasly mostly leading the charge. This time, it was Franco Colapinto who snatched P8. He starts two places ahead of his teammate in probably his best F1 showing to date.
By contrast, Isack Hadjar is already discovering how difficult it can be to partner Verstappen at Red Bull. More than eight tenths of a second off his teammate in P9, the Frenchman did well to get into Q3 in the end. Although he’ll be keen to close the gap and at least take the fight to Alpine for a handful more points.
To make his life tougher, Hadjar's RB22 was found to be non-conforming with the regulations and he was disqualified from qualifying. He will start from the pitlane after taking new PU elements.
New Audi boss Allan McNish has also had a tricky weekend so far. Neither of the team’s cars were classified in the Sprint, and Gabriel Bortoleto suffered reliability issues in qualifying. Nico Hulkenberg claimed his third P11 grid slot in four races, but it’s been a rocky start to the post-Wheatley era.
Liam Lawson starts P12 in the Brawn GP-style Racing Bulls. Ollie Bearman, one of this year’s surprise packages, may turn into a points threat from P13.
Carlos Sainz found 0.6 seconds in qualifying, yet still starts P14. Teammate Alex Albon is also down in P16. All is not well at Williams.
Pressure is building on James Vowles. The PR is turning out to be bogus.
Why Kimi Antonelli is only marginally favourite
On paper, Antonelli has everything he needs to win in Miami. Last year, it was the setting of his breakthrough, and he looked every bit as fast in qualifying this time out. If anything, the margin he had over George Russell down in P5 (four tenths) was larger than expected.
But in the short history of this semi-permanent circuit, no driver has ever claimed victory from the front row of the grid. With rain on the horizon, it’s only looking more likely that this will continue on Sunday. Verstappen himself said conditions will make things “completely different” after qualifying, so it’s all to play for.
As there’s a better than 40% chance of rain, the FIA has declared a “rain hazard,” opening the door to further setup changes. Drivers will also have to deal with active aero restrictions that make following highly unpredictable—after all, this is the first wet race of this era. Who will be fastest is anyone’s guess.
The start has been brought forward three hours. But the weather is still going to be a major factor and it's this unpredictability that keeps fans coming back. F1 has stumbled across the conditions for some actual racing to happen. When the lights go out, let's hope drivers can make the most of it.