Hungarian Grand Prix Grid Walk: Can surprise polesitter Lando Norris hold on for the win?

McLaren have brought a raft of updates to the Hungaroring. If anything, they've overperformed, with Norris flying straight to the top of the timesheet. He pipped Hungary specialist Lewis Hamilton to pole, as well as last year’s polesitter Charles Leclerc, who now starts P2. At this circuit of all circuits, pole is absolutely critical.

Never mind all the stat merchants talking about nobody winning from pole here for five years. This is a narrow race track, where it’s incredibly difficult to overtake. Think Monaco without the walls, or a big go-karting circuit with 22 grown-ass F1 drivers on it. 

Track position is going to be everything. Fifth-place Hamilton will be reeling about his three-place grid penalty for blocking Oscar Piastri in qualifying. Kimi Antonelli will be similarly annoyed about his penalty for not slowing down sufficiently for Max Verstappen's spin (an incident that looked a lot like George Russell’s in Austria). 

Formula 1 can be cruel at times, but he has to get on with it. He’ll now start behind Russell in P7. Will Mercedes split their strategy? Or will they risk a confrontation? Hamilton is also a long way back, but as an eight-time winner here, he can’t be ruled out. It’s still all to play for. Norris will need eyes on the back of his head! 

So many upgrades have been introduced this weekend (only Alpine have gone without), it’s hard to know where teams sit in relation to one another. McLaren are flying, and Ferrari have a new Macarena wing that they haven’t fully utilized yet. However, Red Bull have gone the other way and their car looks a right handful. 

After spinning in qualifying, both drivers criticized the new package. Verstappen quipped that they had not tyre degradation, but “car degradation.” Isack Hadjar was also downbeat, saying that Hungary was supposed to be their weekend. On the other hand, P4 & P8 kind of tracks. Let’s see what they can do from there. 

Further back, Arvid Lindblad is P9, continuing his excellent run of form. Nico Hulkenberg also starts in the top ten. Somehow he has loitered around the points all season but not managed to score. He’ll be hoping to break that run this weekend. 

Behind, Liam Lawson in the other Racing Bulls, alongside the two Alpines, will be chasing a top-ten finish of their own. Aston Martin may not be mixing it with the point scorers just yet, but they have finally become competitive in the midfield. A revitalized Fernando Alonso starts P16, so he could still be one to watch! 

The races at Spa and Silverstone were heavily criticized as drivers encountered power issues that stopped them hitting top speed at these legendary circuits. The Hungaroring should offer a reprieve from this sort of nonsense, as its 14 twisting corners provide ample opportunity for drivers’ batteries to recharge. 

Instead, the focus will return to a more traditional question: pit strategy. Mercedes were below-par in qualifying but are thought to have good race pace. Will they be able to go long, do a one-stopper, and overcut their competitors? It’s going to be marginal, a two-stopper in fresh air could turn out faster.

Then again, Norris outfoxed all the other frontrunners to take victory with a one-stop strategy last year. A safety car would also shake things up big time. Statistically, there’s only a 13% chance of one appearing today. But Ferrari did save a set of softs for both drivers in Q1. A late safety car would make these invaluable. 

Lastly, a little rain wouldn’t hurt either. There’s a non-zero chance of this happening, although storm warnings have been pushed back into the evening. So, we’re more likely to see drivers manage tyres due to track temperatures than any downpours, which is a shame. It would’ve added a bit of spice to proceedings.  

Overtakes might be at a premium, but there are still plenty of reasons to tune into today’s grand prix. Since winning last year’s big prizes, McLaren had gone AWOL. Now, all of a sudden, a brooding Norris and Piastri have a chance to reignite their seasons. 

Hamilton is nowhere near out of this either. This is his track. Other than Silverstone, the Hungaroring is his most successful circuit. Only four of the last forty wins in Hungary have come from outside the top four. Hamilton is more than capable of making it five—so is his teammate on the front row. 

Arguably still in the fastest cars, Russell and Antonelli will also be fascinating to watch off the line. They haven’t clashed directly on-track yet, but they nearly tripped over each other in Canada, and they’ll start side-by-side today. It’s a really exciting, mixed up grid, where the title contenders are likely to battle further back. 

As we head into the last race before the summer break (and the start of silly season), it’s important for many of these drivers to lay down a marker. Not least for Norris, who hasn’t had a realistic chance of defending his title. Today, he has a golden opportunity to regain face and give his team a shot in the arm for the rest of the campaign.