The gloves are off in the Formula 1 title fight between George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. But will we see more “great cinema” as Toto Wolff put it, or will the Canadian Grand Prix descend into “Star Wars?”
Things got pretty feisty between the Mercedes pair in the sprint race. Russell ran wide at the hairpin, allowing Antonelli to close in and make
two very bold lunges for the lead. The Italian ended up dropping to P3, but his bravery on the outside of T1 was admirable.
Finally, a real scrap! F1 fans have longed for this. They start first and second again in the main event. If Mercedes can retain the lead, it'll tee Antonelli up for another attack. Hopefully they’re still allowed to race;
Wolff warned ahead of qualifying that they nearly opened the door to McLaren.
In reality, Mercedes are still in a class of their own. Lando Norris pounced to take P2 in the sprint after Antonelli’s failed overtakes. But he clung on towards the end. Unless the weather takes a turn, it’s looking like a tasty all-Mercedes rematch in Montreal.
McLaren lead the chasing pack
The pecking order is clear as day in Canada. In the sprint, cars lined up two-by-two, with Mercedes leading McLaren, Ferrari, and Red Bull. Charles Leclerc had a mare in qualifying; otherwise, the front four rows of the sprint and Grand Prix would’ve been 100% identical.
So, McLaren are most likely to capitalize if Antonelli and Russell take things too far at the front. It’s less clear if Ferrari will also be in the mix. Lewis Hamilton says he feels happier in the car—and his first Q3 run put him on the front row. But he made a mistake on his second lap and starts behind Norris and Oscar Piastri in P5.
Red Bull pair Max Verstappen and Isack Hadjar are next up in P6 and P7. Verstappen still doesn’t have a pointy enough front end to race how he’d like. In Miami, he managed to put manners on Hamilton. A repeat performance would be impressive; he doesn’t have the machinery to achieve much more than that.
While Hadjar has been closer to his teammate, he would do well to fight off Leclerc. The Monegasque was open about his qualifying struggles, saying Q3 would either finish with P8 or him hitting the wall. Luckily, it was the former! His late surge in Miami was one of the highlights of the weekend; let’s see if he can stage another fightback.
Alpine vs Audi vs Racing Bulls
Alpine broke their garage curfew to change Pierre Gasly’s setup going into the sprint. Unfortunately, it didn’t seem to make a difference. P20 in the sprint, P14 in qualifying—he's really struggling. Teammate Franco Colapinto currently carries the team’s points threat down in P10.
Racing Bulls are also in the points fight. After a few shaky races, Arvid Lindblad qualified P9; teammate Liam Lawson is a few places back in P12. Nico Hulkenberg, who starts P11 for the sixth time this season, is another points threat. Audi continue to loiter around the top ten, but have just two points this term. Surely it's time to convert!
Further back, Haas are having a disastrous weekend. The team started by batting away
rumors that Esteban Ocon is leaving for greener pastures. Maybe this has been a distraction; Ocon is way down in P17, and Ollie Bearman is right alongside him in P16.
Aston Martin and Cadillac are still fighting over the wooden spoon. Fernando Alonso momentarily looked like making it into SQ2, only to crash out while sitting P14.
Who will steal a march in Montreal?
Sergio Perez also seemed up for the fight in the sprint, coming home P11 before being demoted due to a penalty (a slap on the wrist for impeding Lawson). In race trim, normal service has been resumed—their teams fill the back two rows.
Turning our attention back to the front of the grid, it’s set up nicely for Antonelli or Russell to take a statement victory. Russell has been vocal about the fact that Miami wasn’t his best circuit. But what happens if his teammate extends his hot streak in Canada?
Antonelli starts P2 once again on the dirty side of the grid. This along with the short run down to T1 makes it difficult to put Russell under immediate pressure. But the 19-year-old looks rapid this weekend. If he’s fast enough, he can force another error.
Russell was accused of some “very naughty” defensive driving in the sprint. Wolff won’t accept too much of that—and it appears that Mercedes are willing (for the time being) to let their drivers race, so long as it’s clean.
If it stays dry, it's set up nicely for a battle at the front. It's going to be all about Russell vs Antonelli. If not, it’s anyone’s game. Another
2011 Canadian Grand Prix, anyone?