Las Vegas GP Grid Walk: Norris in control after qualifying chaos

When he woke up on quali day (or night, this being Vegas), Norris said he was surprised and a bit nervous about the rain—and the potential banana skin that lay before him. But on-track there was no sign of this anxiety. He breezed to pole, gaining 0.9 secs on his rivals in the first two sectors alone.

Ever since Baku, Norris has been flying, and he now leads the Championship comfortably by 24 points. He’s been so consistently fast that he can knock rival Max Verstappen out of the Title race with a swing of 9 points or more. Teammate Oscar Piastri, meanwhile, continues to look very shaky.

Last year’s race winner, George Russell, qualified a brilliant fourth (after escaping a penalty as Mercedes failed to submit his car setup sheet), making him a potential threat. Carlos Sainz is a place further up, avoiding penalty himself for joining the track in an unsafe manner in Q1. The Spaniard will likely fall back when Nevada returns to its dry, balmy default conditions.

Qualifying was a fantastic watch, showcasing why F1 drivers are the world’s best. Some of the slow-motion drifts around turns 15 & 16 were pretty epic. But the race will likely flip the script on Saturday night, leaving a lot for teams to ponder setup-wise—and for fans to look forward to!

Lewis Hamilton’s miserable run of form continued in Las Vegas qualifying. Amid visible tensions in the team, Ferrari pulled a classic Ferrari strategy. They left it just a little too late on Hamilton’s last lap in Q1, leaving their driver confused, slowing on a fast lap, and out stone dead last.

He might as well go home already! That said, Hamilton’s not the only one who got it wrong in a soaking wet qualifying. With grip at a premium, many drivers spun out—at one point Charles Leclerc was struggling so much at T12, with so few revs, that his engine cut out.

Though the Monegasque did eventually recover, it was only to P9. He may no longer be a factor at the front. Ollie Bearman also had the slowest crash of all time. Somehow he avoided suspension damage; Alex Albon wasn’t so lucky, overcorrecting, hitting the barrier, and condemning himself to P16.

Initially, Lance Stroll seemed to be having a blinder in the wet. Aston Martin made the right call in Q1, sending both drivers out on full wets. Curiously, they then switched to inters too early in Q2 with Stroll in P5. He ended up qualifying P12, so it was a strange decision that's damaged his chances of points.

Amid all this chaos, it’s somewhat surprising that the order changed so little. The cream very much rose to the top in qualifying. Our Title contenders are all in the top five. The big question is, can Verstappen or Piastri lay a glove on Norris? On this showing, it’ll be very difficult.

In many ways, Norris’ recent run of form has lifted a lot of pressure. He’s out front, McLaren is back on top, and his teammate hasn’t been able to compete. Verstappen and Piastri will have to do something special to claw back any ground this weekend—and it may require abandoning “Papaya Rules.” McLaren has denied us a real battle all season; I’d argue Piastri needs to change that pronto.

Norris has all the momentum. Without someone laying down a marker (or a massive slip-up, akin to Seb Vettel at Hockenheim in 2018), he’s going to canter to the win. Outside of Max and Oscar, only Mr. Saturday can realistically land a glove on Norris during the race.

Russell has a strong form around this circuit, even if it is slightly ridiculous and does look like an upside-down pig. Mercedes has also shown a lot of pace at relatively cold, low-downforce race tracks. The conditions will suit them well; he just needs to clear the Smooth Operator in front quickly.

On the flipside, last year’s race turned out very differently. Mercedes scored a one-two, and Hamilton fought from P10 to second. I can’t see that happening this time out! Where it could turn out to be similar is if Norris takes a clean win. Verstappen took his fourth world title here in 2024—failure to challenge the Brit this weekend could almost seal his first drivers’ crown.

Following issues with manhole covers in practice and wet weather in qualifying, teams will be a little short on data heading into the race. That’s at least one variable for Norris to contend with.

Tyre warm-up will be another. Night temperatures in Vegas will likely make this tricky, and it’ll be vitally important if there are any safety cars.There were two here in 2023, so there’s still hope for an upset in that respect. But someone still needs to be brave on the restart.

With three rounds to go, Norris is in pole position in every sense of the word. There are just 83 points left on the table, so if he clinches victory in Vegas, he’ll have one hand on the Title.

Even if the racing disappoints on-track, the magnitude of the stakes on the table as they power down the Strip should make the grand prix a spectacle worth tuning in to.