Jolyon Palmer says George Russell is still title favourite despite sensational Kimi Antonelli

The paddock narrative was almost unanimous. Fastest car. Experienced team leader. Prime opportunity. Then Kimi Antonelli ripped up the script. The 19-year-old Italian has emerged as the revelation of the season, arriving at the front far earlier than even Mercedes insiders expected.

After Miami, where Antonelli claimed a third consecutive pole and victory despite admitting he still “needs a magic start", the championship complexion shifted dramatically.

Suddenly Russell is no longer the clear Mercedes spearhead. He is in a title fight inside his own garage. Antonelli’s rise has been fuelled by raw speed, composure under pressure, and an ability to thrive in difficult low-grip conditions where even experienced drivers have struggled under the demanding new 2026 regulations.

Jolyon Palmer believes Russell still has the edge but admits Antonelli’s trajectory is becoming impossible to ignore: “I still think, as I sit here, I think George is going to win it still. I see the parallels between him and Lando last year; I think they’re so clear.

“I think George has got huge confidence, even if it's maybe taken a bit of a hit in the last couple of races. But if I had to go for one, I'd say his experience and his consistency will win out over 22 races, and I think Kimi still has plenty to prove. And if he does prove it, then he's sensational,” declared Palmer.

That mirrors the broader feeling across the paddock. Russell remains the safer long-term bet because of experience, race management, and consistency over a full campaign. But Antonelli is changing perceptions with every weekend.

His emergence has also exposed one of the fascinating subplots inside Mercedes this season. While Russell has occasionally pointed toward low-grip tracks as a weakness of the W17 package, Antonelli has flourished precisely in those conditions.

That was evident in Brazil last year. It was visible again in Miami. Antonelli’s feel for grip under changing conditions has become one of the defining traits of his rookie campaign.

Former Renault driver-turned-F1 analyst Palmer believes Antonelli’s natural instinct in difficult conditions is the clearest sign yet that Mercedes may have discovered a generational talent.

“I think he can,” Palmer said when asked whether Antonelli is capable of winning the title this season. “If I speak again after Canada and if he wins, then I really think he can do it." It's a huge one really for him to keep the momentum going or to see that George still has an element of control.

“But his raw talent is absolutely clear to see. I think some of his wet-weather performances have been really strong. That's usually a great indicator for a natural feel for grip, which he's obviously got in abundance.”

Antonelli’s calmness in chaotic conditions has repeatedly stood out this season. Palmer pointed to the teenager’s remarkable Formula 1 debut in Australia as the first major sign Mercedes may have something extraordinary on its hands."

Palmer continued: “When you look at his debut race in Australia last year and all the rookies were off in the wall at some point and Kimi came through for a fourth-place finish from the back, that's pretty impressive as an 18-year-old on your debut. His speed is fundamentally really strong.”

The comparison with Oscar Piastri's and McLaren’s struggles on low-grip surfaces further underlines the unique nature of Antonelli’s ability: “He is good on low-grip circuits as well, which is part of the issue that was sort of what George was hiding behind in Miami.

“When you look at Brazil last year as well, the same sort of circuits that Oscar, for example, and McLaren weren't so happy with, George is now starting to say, Well, low-grip circuits are not so much my thing, but that's where Kimi is good.

“And I think, again, having that feel for grip, I think it's innate in him, and I think that's where you see a mark of talent. And at his age to be doing what he's doing, I do think is a sign of greatness,” Palmer added.

While McLaren continues closing the gap through aggressive development, Mercedes remains the benchmark operation under the radically different 2026 rules package.

The Brackley squad has combined strong hybrid deployment, rear-end stability, and superior traction to build what is currently the most complete car on the grid.

Miami exposed some vulnerabilities, particularly on tyre management and low-grip balance, but Mercedes still escaped with Antonelli extending his championship advantage.

Now the team arrives in Canada with another upgrade package many inside the paddock believe could re-establish clear control.

Regarding the title battles, Palmer is adamant: “100% Mercedes' to lose. They've got upgrades coming this weekend and again, we will see, but if they deliver what they're expecting, then they'll be back in control, I think.”

That may ultimately decide whether this becomes Russell’s long-awaited breakthrough season or the year Antonelli announced himself as Formula 1’s next superstar far earlier than anyone expected.

However it is a long season. A resurgence by McLaren or Ferrari or both is always possible, both teams will have their own updates for the battles ahead. Of course, Max Verstappen can never be written out of the equation despite Red Bull's poor start to this new era.  (Jolyon Palmer quotes supplied by Lottoland Live Casino)