Outside Line: Contenders and Pretenders for Red Bull 2020

F1 News
Sunday, 18 August 2019 at 20:26
verstappen gasly
Suffice to say, it's an interesting time at Red Bull. They have a race-winning car, one of the two best drivers on the grid… and a big gaping hole next to him.
Pierre Gasly, for all his pedigree as a GP2 champion couldn't fill it, and now it's former Red Bull-reject Alex Albon's turn to try. Will he fare better? Who knows, but with a car and engine that seems capable of competing for championships come 2020, the team needs someone who can at the very least, consistently deliver a good haul of points.
Below I've decided to take a look at the main candidates for that spot, giving each a "speed" grade (10 being a definite WDC contender) and a "team suitability" grade, which is basically how (un)likely they are to feud with Max (or Jos) Verstappen.
Let's take a look at who's in the running.
Alexander Albon
  • Speed: TBD
  • Team Suitability: 9/10
  • Likelihood: 45%
The now incumbent no. 2 at Red Bull, Albon still might have the most question marks of any driver on this list. Edging Daniil Kvyat in the quali head-to-head (6-5) but trailing in races (7-4), it's hard to gauge exactly how quick the Thai is – and Verstappen is another level entirely – but there's no denying he's hit the ground running in his first F1 season, with the assumption being he'll continue to improve. On the suitability side, it's hard to see a guy that almost wasn't even in F1 this year being anything less than grateful for the opportunity, so it's unlikely he treads on any toes.
Daniil Kvyat
  • Speed: 8/10
  • Team Suitability: 7/10
  • Likelihood: 35%
A guy who probably feels a little hard done-by to not be back in the Red Bull right now, Kvyat might still get the last laugh. As I said on Monday, I think the team opted to promote Albon over the Russian because they already know what the latter provides, and they can afford to use the next nine races as an audition for the former that may or may not pay off. In any case, Kvyat is a driver that possesses very good, if not great pace – picking up two podiums in his previous Red Bull stint while being generally competitive with Daniel Ricciardo – but with discipline being an issue, you could make a case he's not worth the occasional headache.
Nico Hulkenberg
  • Speed: 7.5/10
  • Team Suitability: 9/10
  • Likelihood: 10%
Despite a generally disappointing season for Nico Hulkenberg in 2019, the German could find himself in a very good place come 2020, should the rumours about his candidacy for Red Bull prove true. Often bandied about as one of the best drivers outside the big-three teams before this season, there's no denying his reputation has taken a hit with new Renault teammate Daniel Ricciardo besting him, but he's still a driver that over the course of a season, is a consistently solid performer, even if the podium continues to elude him. With that in mind he's unlikely to ruffle any feathers should Red Bull hire him, providing the performance of Mark Webber without the associated drama.
Sebastien Buemi
  • Speed: 7/10
  • Team Suitability: 10/10
  • Likelihood: 7%
The driver among Red Bull rejects with by far the best post-F1 career, Buemi is a two-time Le Mans and WEC Champion, one-time Formula E Champion and three-time runner up. Just as importantly, he remains within the RBR family with his current role as the team's reserve driver, making him an easy plug-in option for their current setup. Still, there's a reason he was asked to make-way for Jean-Eric Vergne and Daniel Ricciardo all those years ago at Toro Rosso, and while he would probably be an improvement on Gasly, if it was between him and all the other drivers at the big-three teams, he's likely to still be the weakest.
Pierre Gasly
  • Speed: 5/10
  • Team Suitability: 10/10
  • Likelihood: 2%
Personally, I think there's as much chance of this happening as Lance Stroll getting fired from Racing Point, but I suppose it can't be entirely ruled out. Assuming Albon disappoints and Gasly beats Kvyat, his stock will see a decent rise, with the argument that the RB15 just didn't suit his driving style given more credence. That said, it's hard not to banish the memories of his being lapped while Verstappen was winning races, and Helmut Marko doesn't seem like the type to forget easily.
Fernando Alonso
  • Speed: 10/10
  • Team Suitability: "McLaren 2007"/10 (i.e. 0)
  • Likelihood: 1%
A name that, ironically was given a boost by the one man who proved such a pairing to be a bad idea already in Lewis Hamilton, it's hard to see Red Bull truly wanting any part of Fernando Alonso. As we saw in that fateful '07 season, he simply doesn't gel with another alpha dog in the team, not to mention his poor relationship with Honda. Yes, he's faster than everyone else on this list, but he's also liable to throw a tantrum when Max is the first to be given a new part, or get into a shouting match with Jos in a hotel lobby. Short of Netflix offering the team $20 million for all the content he'd provide, there's just no way it's happening.
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