A couple of months ago, it looked as if Max Verstappen and Mercedes were on course to agree a deal that might have seen the Red Bull driver in Silver as early as 2026.
That speculation ended when Verstappen committed to at least another year at Red Bull, while Mercedes boss Toto Wolff appeared content to continue with George Russell and rookie Kimi Antonelli.
Former Formula 1 driver Juan Pablo Montoya believes finances may have been the stumbling block, with Verstappen’s demands proving too high for Mercedes to entertain, hence he remained with Red Bull.
Montoya said: “I don't think Max had a choice. If I was negotiating with Max last year when he was winning the world championship, let's say, it would have cost $100m. This year he's in a struggling car. The number could be $50m.
"Maybe that was the reason he stayed. Maybe Max thought he was going to get $100m and whoever was speaking to him would have the upper hand, knowing that Max would want them more than they want Max.
"Last year, the number had to be like over the moon to get Max. I think this year, if you're negotiating for Max, you can negotiate. Tell him, if you want to be here, this is the number. Toto could offer Max half what he would have needed to last year," speculated Montoya.
Red Bull’s leadership crisis
The Dutchman’s stay coincides with turbulent times at Red Bull, following the
departures of Christian Horner, Adrian Newey and Jonathan Wheatley. Montoya questioned whether the team still has the direction to remain dominant.
He explained: “On the engine side Red Bull have the right people. The question is have they come together in time to build the engine. I think they might surprise people with the power unit and that it might not be as bad as people think it is.
"They took all the top people from Mercedes, the top people from Ferrari, people from everywhere. They have a massive amount of information. It takes time to collate and integrate.
“The problem now for Red Bull next year, is that before you had one guy Adrian Newey that made the final decision on what went on the car. Now, everybody's coming with new ideas, everybody's trying things, and at the end of the day, the guy leading the direction is a different guy.
“What does Red Bull do now? You're putting really good people in charge, but really good people with no experience of being in charge. You lose Christian, Adrian Newey and Jonathan Wheatley; that’s a huge loss of leadership."
Montoya predicts: "It's going to take three or four years for them to come back to the dominance Red Bull had. The problem with struggling a few years is that if they’re not winning, then Helmut Marko will go.
"So, who’s left? Let’s say you bring in Vettel, he’d be ok on the driving side, but he has no political experience in how to run a company," added the Colombian, a
seven-time Grand Prix winner.
Verstappen to Mercedes? Russell to Red Bull?
Looking ahead, Montoya warned that uncertainty at Mercedes could put Russell’s long-term prospects at risk, especially if Verstappen remains on their radar while Antonelli is being groomed for the future.
Montoya said: “I think the problem is George is only going to get a one-year deal. And I think Antonelli is going to get a one-year deal. If I was George and I had a good opportunity somewhere else, I would go.
"If Aston came today to George and offered him a seat for next year, I would take it, he should take it. And then let Mercedes realise what they have lost and figure out what they did next," ventured Montoya.
Verstappen’s current base salary at Red Bull Racing for the 2025 Formula 1 season is consistently reported to be $65 million per year. This figure reflects his status as a four-time world champion and the highest-paid driver on the grid.
Some sources note that his total earnings could reach up to $75 million annually when including performance bonuses and endorsements, though these are not part of his base salary. His contract with Red Bull runs through 2028.