Outside Line: Timeline of Verstappen picking Red Bull not Mercedes

Helmut Marko confirmed what I suspect happened: Max Verstappen signed a new deal with Red Bull for 2026 at least. And part of that agreement? If you ask me, Christian Horner had to go. Otherwise, Verstappen would have gone to Mercedes.

Now, I have no receipts for this. I’m not saying this happened. This is just my imagination at work. Here’s how I think it played out. Amid the Horner-scandal-exit, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff made Verstappen an offer, and as we know, the four-time F1 World Champion has a performance clause to get out of his Red Bull contract that he could trigger.

I can imagine Wolff telling him, “Here’s 60, maybe even 70 million a year. Come drive for us.” Then Verstappen, being loyal to Red Bull, went to the Austrians and said: “I’m getting 70 million offer from Mercedes. Can you match that?”

Red Bull probably said, “We’ll match the 60 million. But why would you leave? You know this team. Why move next year when Ford is coming on board?” And Verstappen might've said, “Fine. Get rid of Horner, and I’ll stay.”

I think that’s what probably happened. Because right now, this is fully Team Verstappen with no more Team Horner to contest with in the same garage. Jos Verstappen will tell you more!

In fact, a telling moment came with Jos during the Sky Sports F1 grid walk at Spa with Nico Rosberg and Martin Brundle. They ambushed The Boss, who (with a smirk I am sure I saw) said of the Horner saga: “I didn’t say anything lately. I said it was going to happen last year. And it did.”

To me, that confirms it. There’s been a full-on decapitation of the Horner power structure. The Verstappen camp is now fully in charge. Let’s see where Laurent Mekies fits into all this, put at the helm on behalf of the Austrian Red Bull faction, as the Thai camp loses interest, having thrown in the towel on their support of Horner.

In closing, one thing is clear: if Red Bull don’t keep Max happy, he’s gone to Mercedes and fufill Toto's dream or even Aston Martin to reunite with Adrian Newey. And if he leaves, that team is finished.

For now, they're okay, while Mercedes refocus on the drivers they have in George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. Woff's 'Verstappen dream' remains unfulfilled.