Ahead of the new Formula 1 season, his 15th at the pinnacle of the sport, Fernando Alonso said the podium is too high a target for McLaren-Honda early in 2016, but added that the season is long and things could change later in the year.
But as he spoke in Baku as an ambassador for the inaugural grand prix in Azerbaijan later this year, the Spaniard suggested he has high hopes for rapid improvement after the team's disastrous 2015.
"I will be more optimistic when I come back here in June," he said.
Most insiders are predicting early one-two finishes for Mercedes this year, beginning with the season opener in Melbourne next weekend.
"It depends an awful lot on how Ferrari perform," F1 supremo Bernie Ecclestone told the Australian grand prix podcast.
"If they don't show that they can win the championship we are going to - fortunately or unfortunately depending on where you are - have Mercedes dominate again," said Ecclestone.
Alonso agrees that the podium will be locked out for silver and red cars at least early this year, "I think in the beginning it will be difficult to be on the podium."
"But the championship is very long and if we develop the car quickly enough then yes, I think that podiums are possible," Alonso added.
He is confident that Honda has made the right moves over the winter, changing "the whole concept of the power unit".
"At the same time it is necessary to strike a balance between speed and reliability -- you first need to get to the finish," he said.
A more realistic early target, therefore, might be to be among the Q3 qualifiers, "Hopefully we can, but no one knows yet. The results of testing were somewhat mixed so we need to wait to see the true balance of power.
"I think we are in a much better position compared to 2015, but others have improved as well -- Williams, Red Bull, Toro Rosso, Force India. To catch up with them, we need to put double the effort.
"But I am pleased with our progress, and whether it is enough for Q3 or not, we will soon find out," he added.
Meanwhile speaking at a specially arranged press conference in Baku - venue of this year's Grand Prix of Europe - for whom he is an ambassador, Alonso gave first impressions of F1's newest venue.
“It’s a real honour for me to be the first F1 driver to visit this magnificent city. The welcome I have received from everyone since my arrival has been wonderful. I have been really impressed with everything I have seen."
"I feel absolutely confident in saying that Baku City Circuit is going to be the most memorable circuits on the F1 calendar this year. Much like this beautiful city, it successfully manages to showcase its modernity with a lovely nod to the past."
"Indeed, the way the track stretches along the Old Town walls with the magnificent Flame Towers in the background is a clear example of this! On a technical level, I am excited to test my skills on such a challenging circuit, in particular along those tight, winding corners."
"I really can’t wait to race here this summer," added the double F1 world champion.
The Baku race, Round 8 of the world championship, takes place on 19 June.