Sao Paulo GP Grid Walk: Lando in charge, Max needs a miracle

Norris followed up an impressive win in Mexico with victory in the Sao Paulo Sprint, which is all he could really do, to be fair. But his title rivals have already begun to deteriorate this weekend. Oscar Piastri did okay in grand prix qualifying with fourth, but he fully bottled it by crashing in the Sprint.

His title charge has faltered ever since his implosion in Azerbaijan—and now Red Bull have failed to keep Max Verstappen in the battle as well. They took risks with the Dutchman’s setup, and it fully backfired, as he was unable to attack the track in qualifying, causing him to (unbelievably) tumble out in Q1.

None of this takes away from the surprise frontrunners at Interlagos. Kimi Antonelli is in the mix, and Ollie Bearman is faster than his eighth-place grid slot suggests. But Norris is the outstanding favorite. Without rain or a lot of luck, it’d be shocking if he didn't win.

After the session, Red Bull boss Laurent Mekies admitted to being “bold” with Verstappen’s car setup. What they might actually have done is handed Norris the drivers’ championship. If Verstappen fails to recover tomorrow and Norris wins, his lead may become unassailable.

All that effort poured into six podiums (and three wins), between the Dutch and Mexican Grand Prix, down the drain! This weekend, Red Bull haven't looked comfortable for a single moment. Max seems unhappy with the Mexico floor, and the rear of his car doesn’t look planted. Both he and Yuki went out in Q1. Verstappen has opted to change both the power unit and floor on his RB21, and thus will start the Grand Prix from the pitlane.

What’s even more worrying for Verstappen is that Red Bull can’t put their finger on the problem. At recent events, it looked like they’d finally put the Horner scandal behind them and brought their leading man back into the fight. However, there’s now an awful lot riding on Brazil. Failure to bring home a big haul of points could see them crash out of the title race altogether. They will be hoping that the changes made to the four-time World Champion's car will propel them up the order during the race.

Unpredictable track conditions played a significant role in the outcome of the Sprint, with Piastri, both Saubers, and (predictably) the Alpine of Franco Colapinto clattering the barriers. More rain is due overnight, so the inside grid slots (the even-numbered side) could still lack grip at the race start.

Verstappen also won from 17th just last year. This time he has to try and do the same from the pitlane, but Verstappen is Verstappen so there's always a possibility. If Piastri can keep himself together, Sunday’s race represents a great opportunity to reverse his downward trajectory as well, although it looks doubtful at the moment.

Antonelli seems to have turned a corner and could be a threat from the front row. Charles Leclerc looked similarly fast over one lap, taking third. Russell might be a bit out of position in sixth; it’d be a surprise not to see him surge past Isack Hadjar in short order.

Alongside the Racing Bulls, who qualified fifth and seventh, Bearman could be a threat (especially if he can replicate his qualifying pace). Just like in the Sprint, Aston Martin and the Alpine of Pierre Gasly will be involved in the points scrap. But anything more would require a miracle—we’re racing in the country of Christ the Redeemer—but even still!

It’s remarkable how quickly things change in Formula 1. Only 12 months ago, Verstappen was joined by Esteban Ocon on the podium. This year, they didn’t make it out of Q1. Until today, Verstappen had never actually been eliminated from Q1 on pace in his entire F1 career.

I guess it’s tricky to maintain this kind of record when you lose four tenths in the middle sector alone! It’s a real shame. Largely for all the fans who were hoping that Verstappen would free them from the monotony of Papaya Rules and the tamest title battle ever.

Even Team LH, his biggest naysayers since Abu Dhabi ‘21, have been in my DMs talking him up. He’ll need a complete reset and one of his all-time great performances to pose a serious threat in the Brazilian Grand Prix. But McLaren have already tripped over themselves many times this season. There’s still a chance they’ll fall in the run-up to the final hurdle.