Any one of six drivers can win today's Mexico City Grand Prix, such is the competitiveness of the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship season.
Six into one does not compute. There's only one spot on the top step of the podium, and there's only one driver who is going to get 'holeshot' and lead through the Turn 1 complex. The 'winner' of that drag race to and through the Moises Solana Esses, will have the best chance of controlling the race, and winning it from there.
From pole position, coupled with the momentum Ferrari has after winning in Texas last Sunday, Sainz for victory in Mexico this Sunday would not be a silly prediction. The Spaniard is probably in the best form of his life in these final races as a Red. Clearly, he intends to go out on a high as his mighty lap in Saturday's Qualifying showed.
Beside him lining up P2, you can never count out Max Verstappen. The reigning F1 World Champ, protecting a 57-point lead ahead of Round 20 today, just needs to beat Lando Norris or trail him over the line. But that's not Verstappen's style.
When in doubt put your money on Max!
If I were an F1 betting man my motto would always be: "When in doubt put your money on Max!" And with this one so open. I would probably put 100 bucks on him winning today, and another 100 on him beating Norris. That's why I don't bet!!!
However, being on the front row, with such a long drag to Turn 1 is an advantage only until phase two of the launch off the line, as the hole in the air the front two generate, creates a slipstream that benefits the next two rows behind.
Row 2. Norris knows time is running out on his title chances, while Ferrari are carving their way up the 2024 F1 Constructors standings as the season heads to a climax. This means McLaren have work to do to stay ahead of not only Red Bull but Ferrari on a charge.
Starting P4, Charles Leclerc will be inspired by his USGP victory, and keen to repeat it and convince Ferrari (and us all) that Sainz was the right guy to let go to make way for Lewis Hamilton next years at Maranello.
Who knows what Mercedes have on Sunday? A bad car or a good car?
The seven-time F1 World Champion, will line-up P6 on the grid with George Russell in P5 for an all-Mercedes third row. Can they win it? On current form: Not a chance? But with them, we never know what they unleash session by session. Maybe today is their day.
Whatever the case, the top six all believe they have a chance should their stars align, which means a hectic Turn 1, where 6 into 1 does not compute.
Remember Sergio Perez getting airborne on the first lap last year? Thus the guy who slips ahead, of the sure melee that will ensue as they attack that first section, will be in the driving seat. And that could be any of the top six on the grid.
But it's a long race. Safety cars could happen. Strategy is going to be key, which makes predicting a winner more difficult than it has been for most of the year.
Mexico City Grand Prix Sideshows
Beyond the top three rows, the others will be battling for the solo digit points on offer. And the stakes are high with VCARB and a resurgent Haas F1 Team battling it out for P6 in the standings. Last year the American team was last all year.
Within those two teams, we have Yuki Tsunoda finally being measured against a hungry VCARB teammate in Liam Lawson. Bith fighting for their future not only in F1 next year, but also a shot at replacing Perez should the Mexican's slump continue unreversed.
Neither Nico Hulkenberg nor Kevin Magnussen will be at Haas next year. But the veterans are intent on seeing their time out in the best manner possible. Made possible by the turnaround from the Geunther Steiner mess of a team to a serious outfit again under Ayao Komatsu.
Haas and VCARB will also have to keep an eye on the Williams of Alex Albon, who recovered well from a crash to plonk it in P9, while his sensational rookie teammate Franco Colapinto would've received a wake-up call as his best effort was only good for P16. He will be good to watch.
Perez and Piastri fail to make it out of Q1
Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll? Nowhere. No surprise if Fernando parks it before the end of the race....
Big talking points after Qualifying was the Q1 elimination of Sergio Perez and Oscar Piastri. For the Mexican, it was not unexpected, albeit still a shocker that all but silenced a roaring home crowd for the rest of the afternoon. But the Mclaren driver missing out after topping the times in FP3, earlier in the day was perplexing.
Both are crucial to their teams in the Constructors' battle, with Ferrari feisty, both McLaren and Red Bull need both drivers on the frontlines, not battling in Nowhereland which Piastri and Perez will be doing. Who beats who and how will be fascinating. A lot riding on this out-of-the-sharp-end contest, perhaps more so for the Mexican than ever before.
Mexico City Grand Prix Stats & Facts by Reuters
- Mexico City Grand Prix
- Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez
- Round 20 of the 24-race 2024 Formula 1 World Championship season
- Lap distance: 4.304km. Total distance: 305.354km (71 laps)
- 2023 race winner: Max Verstappen (Netherlands) Red Bull
- 2023 pole position: Charles Leclerc (Monaco) Ferrari one minute, 17.166 seconds
- Race lap record: 1:17.774, Valtteri Bottas (Finland) Mercedes 2021.
- Start time: 2000GMT/1400 local
- The race is officially named the Mexico City Grand Prix.
- Verstappen has won five of the last six races in Mexico, his joint most successful track with the Red Bull ring.
- Red Bull's Sergio Perez is the only Mexican driver on the starting grid, and the most successful with six career victories, but he has yet to win this season.
- Perez has twice finished on the podium in Mexico (third in 2021 and 2022).
- Lewis Hamilton (2016, 2019) and Verstappen (2017, 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2023) are the only active drivers to have won in Mexico.
- The race was won from pole position in 2015, 2016 and 2022. Three of the last four wins have been from third on the grid.
- Ferrari swept the front row last year.
- Sunday will be the 24th time Mexico has held a championship grand prix.
- The circuit is the highest of any on the calendar at 2,285m above sea level.
- Cars reach speeds of 320kph down the long opening straight.
- The final sector runs into the Foro Sol stadium section with 30,000 fans in high grandstands.
Grand Prix Victories
- Seven-times F1 world champion Hamilton has a record 105 career victories from 351 starts, Verstappen has 61 from 204.
- Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes have all won races this season, the most teams since 2021 when Red Bull, Mercedes, Alpine and McLaren won.
- Seven drivers have triumphed, the most in a single season since 2012 when there were eight.
- Red Bull, who won all but one race last year, have now gone nine without a win.
- Verstappen has won seven times this season. McLaren five, Ferrari four and Mercedes three.
- Ferrari's Carlos Sainz won in Melbourne, McLaren's Lando Norris in Miami, the Netherlands and Singapore, Leclerc in Monaco, Italy and Texas, Mercedes's George Russell in Spain, Hamilton in Britain and Belgium and McLaren's Oscar Piastri in Hungary and Azerbaijan.
- Ferrari top the all time list with 247 wins, McLaren have 188, Mercedes 128 and Red Bull 120.
Pole Position & Podium
- Verstappen has had eight poles this year. That includes the first seven, equalling Alain Prost's 1993 record, and eight in a row including the last race of 2023 -- equalling Ayrton Senna's 1988-89 record.
- The Dutch driver was last on pole in Austria in June.
- Leclerc took pole in Monaco, Belgium and Azerbaijan. Russell was fastest in Canada and Britain. Norris took the top spot in Spain, Hungary, the Netherlands, Italy, Singapore and Texas.
- Hamilton has a record 104 poles, his most recent in Hungary in July 2023.
- Verstappen has 110 career podiums, Hamilton a record 201.
- Verstappen has been on the podium 12 times this season, Norris 11, Leclerc 10, Piastri seven and Sainz six.
2024 Formula 1 World Championship
- Verstappen leads Norris by 57 points with five rounds remaining.
- McLaren are 40 points clear of Red Bull.
Milestone
- Mexico will be a record 400th race for Aston Martin's Fernando Alonso, although he qualified for but did not start three of his 399 to date.
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