KartCMP1: Monaco Grand Prix Data Crunch

Let’s crunch the numbers and see what really went on in the Principality of Monaco on Sunday.

Easily the most difficult assessment to make in F1 is the illusive oddity otherwise known as ‘race pace’. Over time I’ve come to believe that if you extract each drivers fastest lap every five laps, you’ll have a data set that best represents the true performance of each car. I call it “Best Case Race Pace”.

Below I have assembled “Best Case Race Pace” for the Monaco Grand Prix. I have extracted the best lap of each driver for laps between 6-10, 11-15…….71-78. I have then averaged those times into one single time to compare the delta between the drivers ultimately representing each driver’s race pace lap time relationship.

While this years’ Monaco Grand Prix didn’t offer up an interesting set of data as on-track passing was few and far between with each car's pace somewhat regulated, what was glaringly obvious was Mercedes poor performance against the remarkably good performance of Red Bull.

Max Verstappen commanded the race from start to finish and was never under pressure from his rivals Valtteri Bottas and Carlos Sainz. Bottas had begun to taper off on pace losing significant time against Verstappen before pitting on lap 30. Unfortunately, a right front wheel issue would see the end of Valtteri’s race thereby promoting Sainz to second position.

Carlos Sainz would mount a 20 lap charge from lap 36 to 55 rapidly closing on Verstappen by 0.191s per lap for a total haul of 3.817 seconds and briefly under three seconds behind the quick Dutchman, 2.965 seconds behind to be exact by the end of lap 55. Verstappen would respond immediately and between laps 56 to 78, Verstappen would cruise away from Sainz on average 0.261s per lap for a total haul of 6.003 seconds.

It was a remarkable display of race pace from Ferrari who unfortunately failed to get their pole-sitting car of Charles Leclerc to the grid. Red Bull and Mercedes have been heads and shoulders above the rest in terms of race pace as Ferrari like many others have struggled to hang onto Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton not long after the drop of the green flag so far this season.

Carlos Sainz was applying pressure to Valtteri Bottas before his stop on lap 30 and then immediately began to close on Verstappen in clear air. It was a refreshing race for the Tifosi with Carlos Sainz convincingly among the leaders on pace alone.

Outside of the Verstappen, Sainz and Bottas race, there were the rest. Ferrari clearly won the race pace battle against their main championship rival McLaren, as Lando Norris never showed the extra punch required to run with the leaders.

In fact, Norris was holding on by the end as Sergio Perez on the freshest tyres of the top five began to apply pressure in the latter stages of the race. Norris ultimately held on to the final podium position regulating Perez to an impressive fourth position.

Easily the most entertaining phase of the race was the first pit cycle of Lewis Hamilton, Pierre Gasly, Sebastian Vettel, Sergio Perez. The seven-time champion failed to connect in qualifying starting from a hopeless seventh position.

Due to the issue with Leclercs Ferrari, the championship leader started sixth. Mercedes pit Hamilton on lap 29 and what followed was a colossal strategic failure from Mercedes.

Mercedes lost control of their program and made a short-sighted attempt to undercut the AlphaTauri of Pierre Gasly. Hamilton put in a decent in-lap but did not deliver an effective out lap.

Despite Gasly’s in-lap being half a second slower than that of Hamilton one lap previous, Gasly managed to avoid the undercut attempt and as the cycle unfolded, Vettel began producing fast laps crossing the finish line at the end of lap 29 a total of 4.1 seconds behind Gasly.

Gasly would go on to have a devastatingly slow out lap losing 4 seconds to Vettel over the course of one single lap resulting in quick thinking from Aston Martin to pit Vettel. The result was Vettel exited the pit lane in a side by side drag race battle with Gasly which he eventually won.

Red Bull instead decided to run Perez long and as Hamilton, Gasly, and Vettel chased each other into the basement, Perez leapfrogged all three drivers on route to an eventual fourth-place finish.

Despite a poor race start grid slot for Perez, Red Bull seemingly by magic pulled a fast one on AlphaTauri, Mercedes and Aston Martin in one cleaver swipe. While Vettel’s four-second overcut on Hamilton and Gasly was spectacular, Red Bull’s simplistic strategy was far more effective.

The race was Imola all over again for Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes. Unfortunately, there wasn’t a combination of a red flag and effective DRS capability to catapult himself out of trouble.

While Bottas and Perez have attempted to play wingman roles for Max Verstappen in recent races, it was AlphaTauri and Pierre Gasly to perform that role to absolute perfection. Subsequently, Hamilton relinquishes the championship lead to Verstappen, and more importantly, Mercedes are now one point behind Red Bull in the constructor’s championship.

The battle resumes in two weeks and the pressure on all fronts is fully turned on for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku.