F1 Supercomputer: Norris or Verstappen for 2024 F1 title?

It is hard to believe that the wheels have come off the Red Bull campaign this season after Verstappen won seven of the first ten races but has not won in the last six GPs. However, his lead has only dropped seven points from 69 then to 62 now. But that could change if the RB20 form is not recovered.

Where it is super close, is the battle for the 2024 F1 Constructors' title where Red Bull lead by a mere eight points when they once led by 60. Eight rounds remain in this year's 24-race championship.

The reigning World Champions are not only reeling from vanished performance but also Sergio Perez who has gone AWOL this season. He has scored less than half the points his teammate Verstappen has bagged.

The folks at PokerApps got their F1 Supercomputer to crunch the numbers and do the math to predict where the 2024 F1 world titles will end up.

Whichever way it looked all indications are that Norris and Verstappen are set for a dramatic final run to the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix season finale in December.

The report found: "Norris is given just a 0.4% chance of winning his first drivers' title after the Belgium Grand Prix but now has a 22.6% likelihood of beating Verstappen to the championship after Italian Grand Prix

McLaren's British driver Noirris is now rated as having a 22.6% chance following his third-place finish at Monza, a jump up from the 12.6% rating he carried into the race weekend.

The report continues: "Reigning champion Verstappen remains the favourite to win the title according to the model, with a 77% chance, but his lead has collapsed in the last few weeks. The Dutchman was well on his way to yet another title with a 99.6% probability rating after the Belgian Grand Prix when Norris was given just a 0.4% chance of overcoming Verstappen.

"At the current rate of travel, Norris could become the new title favourite after the United States GP if Verstappen continues to fall down the pecking order and the Brit picks up more wins. However, looking ahead to Azerbaijan and the rest of the season, the SuperComputer is backing Verstappen and Red Bull to bounce back to some extent.

"The Dutchman is predicted to finish sixth in the next race in Baku but is forecast to come third in Singapore and the United States GP before falling off again.

"Verstappen is also tipped to come second in the Las Vegas GP. While that hardly hints at a thumping comeback to end the season on a high that would be enough for him to finish the season as champion — but if Red Bull cannot respond to McClaren, and Norris remains in the ascendency, then the script could well be flipped.

"At the current rate that the gap in the championship is closing, week on week, the season could well come down to the very last race in Abu Dhabi with the SuperComputer suggesting even now it may come down to 25 points on the final race weekend.

"That would require Norris to win the race and grab the bonus points for the fastest lap with Verstappen bringing in zero points, but the way that this season is going that margin is set to continue to shrink, and that could mean the decision race comes far sooner in the schedule," concludes the report.