It’s the British Grand Prix this weekend, but those holding out for a Ferrari victory can pop their enthusiasm back in their pocket. Not even a renewed Lewis Hamilton can lead the prancing horses to the top step of the podium at the power-hungry Northamptonshire track.
With the power unit (PU) upgrade scheduled for Spielberg, there were expectations that Barcelona's winning ways could translate into a genuine Ferrari assault on the Formula 1 World Championship.
Damp squib
However, those hopes were dashed on the mountain rocks of the Red Bull Ring. Qualifying looked good on paper, as they secured second- and third-fastest times, but that only flattered to deceive.
Max Verstappen’s trip to the wall and Kimi Antonelli’s eyesight issues meant that neither put in a final qualifying lap.
If they had done so, the Ferraris would both have been relegated by two slots to a starting position that more accurately reflected the true state of play.
Sacrilege
The “Commendatore” would be turning in his grave if he knew that the only thing between Ferrari victory and a world Championship was its PU.
They have the chassis; they even have the aero. However, their cars are simply running out of beans, while their main rivals Mercedes, Red Bull, and potentially McLaren, still have plenty left in the tank.
To put this into context, in qualifying and race speed traps, Mercedes consistently held an advantage. Kimi Antonelli’s telemetry recorded closing delta speeds up to 30km/h faster than Charles Leclerc’s out of Turn 1.
Empty is empty
This was adjudged to be an (energy) deployment strategy issue. However, you can’t deploy what you don’t have!
Telemetry profiles for George Russell and Antonelli showed a smooth, continuously rising top-speed curve on the straights. Conversely, Ferrari’s trace flattened abruptly halfway down.
Further side-by-side comparisons demonstrated that the Ferraris had equal to faster apex speeds but had to frequently lift and coast prior to braking whereas the silver arrows were able to maintain full throttle.
Size matters
To make matters worse, the fix for Maranello's PU malaise may not be a quick one. In today’s complicated F1 world, they appear to have a number of issues.
The first is the PU and its small turbo that doesn’t produce enough power (especially at high-altitude tracks), making it vulnerable to overheating – as in Austria.
This in turn means it struggles to feed the battery, resulting in the algorithms switching to clipping or harvesting mode mid-lap, explaining Antonellis’ comments about the Ferraris “running out” of deployment on corner exits. Dangerous stuff!
So does stamina
The second issue, more concerningly, is the efficiency of their energy harvesting and deployment system - Mercedes seem to be able to collect more and make it last longer.
This will apparently be addressed together with the turbo size, with their second upgrade planned for Zandvoort or Monza.
However, it is something that may require multiple upgrade cycles to be competitive.
Tyred out
Silverstone will not be kind to SF-26 and its drivers. Given their current PU challenges, Ferrari will likely be forced to run a low-drag configuration, leaning into their superior mechanical grip. This in turn will mean a hard day at the office for their tyres, not a positive scenario for race pace.
Bologna not Maranello
Meanwhile, we can still anticipate an Italian victory at Silverstone this Sunday in the shape of Kimi Antonelli. The luck ran with George last weekend but whilst his victory appeared comfortable, it was made somewhat easier by Antonelli’s unlucky qualifying result.
It’s unlikely that a home crowd advantage will be enough to keep the Italian youngster in his mirrors.
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