Outside Line: Antonelli a year too early for Mercedes

Looking back, that short Italian Grand Prix session debut sums up the kind of rookie season Antonelli is now having in Formula 1. Disappointing, but he only turned 19 five days ago and is racing for Mercedes F1 Team!

That day on home soil, Antonelli completed only a handful of (impressive?) laps during FP1 for the Italian Grand Prix, before crashing. It was an error of raw inexperience: a young driver, ultra-hyped, eager to impress, producing a flurry of ill-advised, quick laps too soon on a green and newly resurfaced track, before overstepping the limit.

In hindsight, Toto Wolff might have been wiser to keep him in Formula 2 for another season. After all, Antonelli never dominated the feeder series last year in a way that suggested he was the next Max Verstappen. He finished P6.

And the past 14 races have shown he is on a steep learning curve, with nowhere to hide at Mercedes alongside the formidable benchmark of George Russell. Antonelli has seven no-point scores on his 2025 F1 scorecard and has only added one point to his tally in the last five races. He is P7 with 64 points, teammate Russell is P3 on 172 points.

I would even argue that if Mercedes had put Valtteri Bottas back in the car and left Antonelli in Formula 2 to win the title this year, the Finn’s experience would have yielded stronger results for the team. But that’s not how Formula 1 works.

Wolff judged Monza’s crash not a reason enough to delay Antonelli’s promotion. Personally, I love the kid. He brings a Valentino Rossi vibe, he resonates with the next generation of fans, and I want him to succeed. That said, the more I see, the more convinced I am he needed more time in Formula 2.

Now that he is in F1, Mercedes must give him at least three years to prove himself. He didn’t beg for the seat—it was a marketing decision, Netflix exposure and all.

Yes, Wolff calls it a long-term project, and Antonelli is a prodigious talent. These cars are extremely difficult to drive, and he is adapting, but the comparison to Russell is inevitable. That is the gamble Wolff took: throwing a teenager straight into the hottest of hot seats in Formula 1.

How does this differ from Verstappen? Max had time to make rookie mistakes in the relative shelter of Toro Rosso. Yes, he crashed, but he also produced magic, outrageous drives in the wet, fearless overtakes that marked him as special before Red Bull promoted him.

What about Mercedes protege Russell? He also had the cover of learning the ropes and learning at Williams. As did Charles Leclerc, the Ferrari did time at Sauber before being thrust into the limelight of the Scuderia.

Antonelli has no such cover. He is in a team that expects podiums, where Russell is delivering, setting a lofty benchmark for any driver let alone a rookie.

This is why I return to Bottas. With his experience, I believe he would have scored more points than Antonelli alongside Russell and contributed more to the Constructors’ fight. That can’t be proven now, but it feels likely. Antonelli’s time will come just not as quickly as Mercedes might have hoped.

While I don't think Antonelli is the 'next Max' of Formula 1 at this stage of his career. But if he can mature and harness his pace to good effect consistently in all sessions - like that marvellous Miami Sprint Race pole position lap or that unforgettable podium in Canada - he will be great. To get there, Toto has to give him time, three seasons at least.