Before we embark on this virtual grid walk down the most famous boulevard in Monte Carlo, from where the 71st edition of the world's most famous street race will take place this Sunday, there is a disclaimer: there will be bent metal.
There will be a surprise result in Monaco today, so predicts our Lady on the spot, Agnes Carlier, who has been warning of such since cars were unleashed on the streets this weekend. And indeed there's an undeniable high probability of chaos.
Although starting from the front row – especially P1 – tends to be an advantage, there are things only fate and Karma control at the Principality. Who actually finishes the race? Throw into that the uncertainty of two mandatory pit stops to spice up the show, as if the Monaco show needs spicing.
If there are F1 fans like me, watching a 'procession' of guys slithering as close to the barriers as physically possible, not even space for the finest piece of paper, is enthralling enough to sacrifice overtakes. That's the Magic of Monaco that the entertainment-starved don't get. You won't be overtaking today, they say. Trust me, there will be overtakes. And they’ll be audacious.
Of course, there will be bent metal. There will be tears. That’s the nature of the Monaco Grand Prix. Many have cried on that shoreline of the Principality where only the mega-rich and famous can afford to live.
McLaren have the edge but Max and Charles will fancy their chances too
But today, Formula 1 can celebrate what’s turning out to be an enthralling championship, with another gargantuan episode in store for our growing horde of F1 fans.
Granted, McLaren have the edge early on this season, which was already a course of past starts, but the tenacity and genius of Max Verstappen is keeping them super honest. And Ferrari. Are they heading for a renaissance? Could be if they stopped fumbling strategy.
Do not be surprised if Magic Max somehow does the business at a venue that rewards the greats, of which the Dutchman is undeniably one.
But having said that, the weather could play a role. The two stops, as mentioned, could factor in. Good or bad strategy, you name it. In the end, it will really be a tale of who’s left standing and who crosses that finish line first.
And while the smart money will be on Row 1, which is Lando Norris, starting from pole for the 11th time in his career, and last year’s winner and homeboy, Charles Leclerc - a Monte Carlo street expert. He starts P2. Which makes for a salubrious opening lap, if they squeeze out of Turn 1 unscathed.
Formula 2 race signals a warning to Formula 1
I mention Turn 1 because the Formula 2 feature race was hardly 100 metres old before a third of the field was eliminated in one of those slow-motion crashes that destroyed many cars and driver egos.
With that massive repair bill in mind and the no points if you crash on lap one sword, one wonders if the Formula 1 drivers will watch that over and over and come to some sort of cordial understanding of how to get through that ultra-thin funnel that is Saint Devote before they roar up the hill.
But there are a bunch of rookies in there who have already run up extensive bills, which might have been avoided had they been given more testing. These are tricky cars to drive from within. It’s hard to believe one of them, if not more, won’t have an encounter or two – an encounter with the barriers.
And then, of course, there’s that woefully incompetent and increasingly out-of-sorts and crash-prone Lance Strong, who is sure to be on TV today for all the wrong reasons. Of course, from my heart, I hope all 20 finish the race - but that’s unlikely to happen. So all I can say is: be safe, all of you.
On row two, we have Piastri starting from P3 directly behind his teammate Norris, which could work both ways depending on how the dice roll and how things pan out off the line. Be sure, if Oscar sniffs a gap, he’ll go through it. Ditto Max Verstappen starting right beside him.
When in doubt, bet on Max
We saw what Max can do when he blitzed into the lead at Imola. That was the stuff of legend. If anyone can find a gap no one else sees, it will be Max. And if I were a betting man in such an open race, one that even the guy starting at the back could win if the planets align, I’d put my money on Verstappen.
Next up, heading row three, is the rookie of the season so far: Isack Hadjar. Hadjar benefited from Lewis Hamilton’s demotion from P4, as did Verstappen. Hadjar finds himself in P5 and simply continues to defy all pre-season predictions and embed himself as a driver Red Bull must surely be considering to replace the out-of-his-depth Yuki Tsunoda.
Fernando Alonso again defied his age to put in the kind of effort that surely impresses Adrian Newey in the pits for the first time since his signing for Aston Martin. The Spaniard starts P6. Conversely, Stroll starts down in P19.
Hamilton, thanks to his impeding of Verstappen in qualifying on Saturday, will line up in seventh. His impeding - although unintentional by the one-time World Champion - earned him a three-place grid drop.
What would have been a P4 start, directly behind McLaren, would have served Ferrari a lot better. It would have been two McLarens, two Ferraris, and far more difficult for Verstappen to make inroads – or anyone behind them. But with Hamilton starting in P7, Ferrari strategy (if they have one) will be far different. Let’s see how that pans out.
Anything can happen today in Monaco
Sharing row four with Hamilton is another Ferrari-powered driver, albeit in the Haas, aka Esteban Ocon. A fine effort by the Frenchman, while his teammate Oliver Bearman would have started higher up had it not been for the 10-place grid penalty he received for ignoring red flags in Qualifying.
Starting from P9, Liam Lawson was again humbled by Hadjar and may soon be welcoming another teammate to the team if current form is anything to go by. Before that, we have Alex Albon lining up P10, and Carlos Sainz P11.
While it is a great improvement from where this Williams team was not so long ago, Albon, in particular, was aggrieved that he didn’t put in the kind of lap he had done earlier in the sessions, when it mattered in Q3. Sainz was again outdriven by his teammate.
In from P12, slowest of the Red Bull quartet, Tsunoda is probably on notice. Should he not bring the car home, one imagines Hadjar will be next in line for that number two Red Bull seat. The Japanese driver will need to show he belongs with the elites, at least at this stage of his career.
Beyond that, we’re hardly likely to see any great shakes – apart from a scenario of the kind only Monaco can conjure. It brings in so many red herrings, so many jokers, that an unthinkable result might emerge – somehow, more so than in most recent races. Peevee Prediction: P1 Max, P2 Isack and P3 Charles.
As mentioned, as she sniffs the air out of the media centre at the Principality hours before this race, Agnes suggests: "There’s a scent wafting through the Principality this weekend that we may be in for a total surprise today."
Formula 1 statistics for Sunday's Monaco Grand Prix
- Round eight of the 24-race 2025 Formula 1 World Championship:
- Lap distance: 3.337km. Total distance: 260.286km (78 laps)
- 2024 pole position: Charles Leclerc (Monaco) Ferrari one minute 10.270 seconds
- Leclerc last year became the first Monegasque to win at home since the championship started in 1950. It was also his first home podium appearance.
- Monaco is the shortest and slowest track on the calendar, and the race with most laps. Only 34% of the lap is at full throttle.
- The race will have a mandatory two pitstops this year in a bid to liven up the racing.
- The 180-degree turn six hairpin is the slowest corner of the year, with cars taking it at 45kph.
- This year´s race is the 71st edition in championship history and 82nd since the first grand prix there in 1929.
- The late triple world champion Ayrton Senna holds the record for most Monaco wins with six, including five in a row with McLaren between 1989 and 1993.
- A safety car deployment is highly likely.
- McLaren are the most successful team in Monaco, with 15 wins since their debut in 1966. Ferrari are next on 11.
- In 1996, Frenchman Olivier Panis won from 14th on the grid -- the lowest winning start position to date. Since 1950, only 10 times has the race been won by a driver starting lower than third.
- Four former Monaco winners will be racing on Sunday: Fernando Alonso (2006, 2007), Hamilton (2008, 2016, 2019), Max Verstappen (2021, 2023) and Leclerc (2024).
- Verstappen's wins were races he led from start to finish.
- Leclerc has been on pole three times in the last four years -- in 2021, 2022 and 2024. There was no race in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Three Australians have won in Monaco: Jack Brabham (1959), Mark Webber (2010, 2012) and Daniel Ricciardo (2018). Six British drivers have won since 1950, more than any other country.
POINTS
- McLaren's Oscar Piastri leads the drivers' championship by 13 points from teammate Lando Norris. Verstappen is nine points behind Norris.
- Leaders and champions McLaren are 132 points clear of Mercedes and 148 ahead of Red Bull.
- Piastri, Norris, Verstappen and Mercedes' George Russell are the only drivers to have scored in every race this season.
- Aston Martin's double world champion Alonso has yet to open his account and has finished 11th three times.
RACE WINS, POLES, & PODIUM
- Piastri has won four out of seven races, Verstappen two and Norris one.
- Seven-times world champion Hamilton has a record 105 career victories from 363 starts. Verstappen has won 65 grands prix and is third on the all-time list after Michael Schumacher on 91.
- Piastri and Verstappen have both been on pole three times this season, Norris once.
- Norris has started on the front row in three of seven races.
- Hamilton has a record 104 career poles, his most recent in Hungary in 2023.
- Both McLaren drivers have finished on the podium six times so far in 2025.
MILESTONE
- Red Bull celebrated their 400th race last Sunday with Verstappen winning at Imola.
- That race was also a 600th for Sauber, who debuted in 1993 and will compete as the Audi works team next season.
- Imola was the first time Hamilton beat Leclerc in a regular grand prix as a Ferrari driver.
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