Heading to the 2022 Spanish Grand Prix, ‘porpoising’ is not only a buzzword in Formula 1 right now, the new regs producing cars that ‘dolphin-ate’ on track, a word that aptly describes the fortunes of our F1 Betting Project.
Loaded with one hundred bucks each at the beginning of the season, Kevin and Luis embarked on a journey of discovering whether betting on F1 races is actually fun; does intimate knowledge help? Is it fun? Or is it plain shite and angst on a weekend when you should be chilling? All to be revealed when the season ends.
And if they have any money left as Kevin has already raided his piggy bank for the extra hundred bucks bail-out money when the first batch ran out. It did.
Luis on the other hand is still on the original hundred, but teetering on raiding the piggy bank too should he suffer another defeat in this season of porpoising fortunes.
Kevin: Many bets, many losses, but a small profit
Heading to Miami I decided to wave any betting on practice until I got a taste of FP running to get an idea where every team and driver stood. With many of the midfielders running closer to the front than usual, I decided to split a bet on pole position qualifying margin evenly as the odds were favourable.
My decision to bet on a qualifying margin of 0.25-minus as opposed to 0.1-plus was entirely founded on the midfielder’s pace. It ended up working out returning a near $10 profit on a $20 stake.
Due to Verstappen’s limited practice running I decided to split a $20 bet evenly on Checo and Leclerc. It’s anyone’s guess where Verstappen’s lost final run might have landed him, especially as Leclerc did not deliver the best final sector on his pole lap. Regardless, I’ll take the freebie win as it covered my impulse bets that went poorly.
Just before the start of qualifying, teammate betting opened up and while it seemed like a slam dunk at the time (it always does), it ended up not working out. Mr Saturday decided to save his best for Sunday, Stroll makes the Q3 cut for the first time this year, and Kevin Magnussen was not his usual ballsy self in the Miami heat. It’s my fault for impulse betting, but it left me absolutely perplexed.
Lando Norris vs Daniel Ricciardo, Lando Norris @ 1.20 Stake $5.00; Return $6.00 (20% win)
Charles Leclerc vs Carlos Sainz, Charles Leclerc @1.14 Stake $10.00; Return $11.41 (14% win)
F1 Betting Saturday Misses
Sebastian Vettel vs Lance Stroll, Sebastian Vettel @ 1.28 Stake $5.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
George Russell vs Lewis Hamilton, George Russel @ 1.83 Stake $10.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
Kevin Magnussen vs Mick Schumacher, Kevin Magnussen @ 1.44 Stake $5.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
My ongoing frustration with trying and failing miserably to find any logic influenced a plethora of silly $1 bets that all went sideways. I wasn’t helped as my attention was somewhat occupied with the family rental kart outing I was in the middle of.
Luckily, every bet I did put some amount of skin on paid off. I did analyze lap times post-qualifying and it was clear that it would be foolish to discount Verstappen from the win.
When it came time to decide whether I should bet on the race winner, I decided to skip out and instead placed bets on more practical outcomes with better odds. Looking back there’s always regret but getting out of the weekend with a small profit feels good too.
Amazingly, despite 11 low-value bets on unlikely outcomes, I never get lucky enough to hit on any of them. It’s just my luck.
Verstappen & Leclerc Podium Finish, Perez & Sainz Top 6 Finish, Hamilton & Russell Points Finish @ 3.75 Stake $10.00; Return $37.50 (275% win)
Red Bull, Ferrari & Mercedes – All 6 Cars To Be Classified @ 1.80 Stake $10.00; Return $18.00 (80% win)
Leclerc & Perez – Both Drivers Top 6 Finish @ 1.36 Stake $10.00; Return $13.63 (36% win)
Perez & Hamilton Podium Finish, Russell & Norris Top 6 Finish, Gasly & Tsunoda Points Finish @ 21.00 Stake $1.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
Perez, Hamilton, Norris, Gasly, Alonso & Ocon – All 6 Drivers Top 10 Finish @ 15.00 Stake $1.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
Mercedes, McLaren & Alpine – All 6 Cars Top 10 Finish @ 15.00 Stake $1.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
Leclerc, Perez & Hamilton – All 3 Drivers Podium Finish @ 15.00 Stake $1.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
Red Bull, Ferrari & McLaren – All 6 Cars Top 6 Finish @ 13.00 Stake $1.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
Leclerc & Perez Podium Finish, Hamilton & Russell Top 6 Finish, Ricciardo & Gasly Points Finish @ 13.00 Stake $1.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
Red Bull, Mercedes & McLaren – All 6 Cars Top 10 Finish @ 4.50 Stake $2.00; Return $0 (100% loss)
After horrendous losses resulting from the Emilia Romagna GP, GP247 donated another $100 for my cause moving my total funds borrowed to $200 to date. I was able to recover approximately a third of my losses. Spanish GP is ahead, my fingers are crossed that I manage to get a little bit luck come my way once again.
Total Spent on this GP: $121.87
Total Return on this GP: $158.79
Total Profit made this GP: $36.92
Total Profit made to date: $48.19 LOSS
Current Balance: $151.81
Luis: If in doubt, bet on Max
After a horrible Imola Grand Prix I really needed to bounce back at the new Miami GP. Due to it being a new circuit, it meant that betting on the race was going to be especially hard, since no one had any actual race experience.
In order to make sure that I don’t have a weekend like that last one, I decided to keep the bets relatively simple. I didn’t make loads of bets, but instead I kept it to 3 bets totaling 50€ out of the 85ish euros I had left.
I had to be cautious because I was scared of losing it all and having to delve into my 100€ backup before the 6th race of the season, which would have been quite the turnaround after being nearly 80€ up on my starting amount.
How the betting went
Sainz and Alonso Top 8 finish @ 2.75
Stake: 10€ Return: 0€
I liked my odds on this one, however the opportunity to almost triple my money was met with the fact that I was relying on 2 relatively inconsistent drivers so far this season, and while Carlos managed to get a podium, Alonso couldn’t even classify in the top 10.
Charles Leclerc Race Winner @ 1.83
Stake: 20€ Return: 0€
After having the better of Max during practice and qualifying, I figured Charles would run away with this one, especially since his title rival wasn’t even on the front row. It just goes to show that if you’re unsure on who to bet on, make sure you never go against Max.
Out of the 5 races so far, that is definitely the biggest lesson I’ve learned so far. If in doubt, bet on Max. It’s hard to predict the winner of the races this season, especially since reliability issues are toying with Max’s success, but in future I think it’s a safer bet to go with the number 33 car. No profit until now though.
How one bet saved Luis dipping into the piggy bank F1 Betting bailout fund
Onto the final bet, this had to be profit or I would really be scraping the barrel going to the Spanish Grand Prix
Verstappen Leclerc top 2, Hamilton, Russell Top 10 @ 3.50
Stake: 20€ Return: 66.50€!!!
Thanks to a charge through the field from George and a somewhat peaceful race at the front meant that Leclerc and Verstappen were able to finish 1-2 and the Mercs came home with a good haul of points in 5th and 6th, obviously still not where they want to me but I couldn’t care less to be honest.
The bet with the lowest odds ended up saving my ass and bringing me back up to about even with what I had when we started this whole betting thing. Rumour has it that Kevin has already delved into his backup money, so I’m definitely in the lead on that front. [Rumour confirmed.]
Total for this weekend: 50€
Total return this weekend: 66.12€
Total profit made this weekend: 16.12€
Total profit made to date: +2.99€
Current balance: 102.99€
Thoughts ahead of the Spanish Grand Prix
We’re basically back where we started. Six races in and my F1 Betting balance has gone up by a measly three euros. Six years ago Max Verstappen got his maiden F1 victory here, which is hopefully a sign of what will happen again this weekend because that’s the direction my bets are going to, if in doubt, bet on Max.
Miami conclusions and thoughts ahead of Barcelona
Kevin has embraced ‘spread’ F1 betting, putting small amounts on numerous bets and it sort of worked for him. Luis was more focussed on fewer bets at a greater cost. And one bet saved his ass.
From the judge’s perspective, it’s like watching two blindfolded guys play darts outside in the wind. So credit to Luis and Kevin, take a bow, for persevering and providing these inciteful reports that provide an interesting case study for betting companies and F1, for that matter, who are not shy to encourage fans to punt responsibly.
Barcelona is going to be tricky. The margins between drivers and teams are narrower than ever as they know the place inside out. For now, Ferrari has the edge after FP1, but it’s a season of ups and downs (porpoising?) when it comes to the pecking order.
If Ferrari dominates qualifying, will Max be a sure bet for the race win? What of the other myriad of options that Barcelona will present itself in terms of lucrative punts? We will let you know in the next chapter of our F1 Betting project.