Montoya: Norris won the F1 title when he overtook Antonelli

However, for Grand Prix and Indy 500 winner Juan Pablo Montoya, the 2025 Formula 1World Championship title was effectively decided the moment Norris overtook the spinning Mercedes of Kimi Antonelli on the final lap at last Sunday's Qatar Grand Prix.

Montoya reflected on that night in Lusail: “Norris’ overtake of Antonelli for me is the championship right there, right there. It takes a lot of pressure from McLaren to make a decision because at this point Oscar needs to win and Lando needs to be sixth. On the other side, if Max is winning, they can control Oscar’s race and tell him that because Max is winning and he’s out of the championship that he needs to be a number two player.”

His concern is not only McLaren’s indecision but the influence of Piastri’s manager Mark Webber. Montoya added: “He’ll want to protect his man, but to do that he needs to be a team player when mathematically he’s out of the championship.”

The McLaren strategy collapse centered on one moment: the Safety Car. Montoya was blunt about why it spiraled: “Zak Brown came into the F1 TV studio and said they got the report of the safety car the same lap the car came out and that they were not ready. My personal view is that this is their problem.

"If you double-stack Oscar is going to come out in front and Lando then would get stuck in mid-traffic. So you couldn’t double-stack because that would have meant sacrificing Lando.

"If you leave Oscar out when he’s leading, he’ll say he’s been treated wrongly. If you do it the other way, you are going to throw the championship away. They didn’t want to piss off either driver, in the end they pissed off both.”

For Montoya, flexibility was the answer, not the rigid Papaya rules that have defined the year; he said: “They didn't want to deal with the drama of the two drivers.

The tyre call also baffled him. Norris struggled all weekend on the hard compound, then was put back on Hards at the end. Montoya said: “He needed to come out of the pits and in those first three or four laps he needed to fly and go by people before the tyres take a dip. And they went for Hard tyres with six or seven laps to go.”

Montoya’s verdict was simple: “As soon as Oscar didn't pit, Max won the race.”

Much like his former rival, 1997 F1 World Champion Jacques Villeneuve, Montoya believes McLaren’s fairness doctrine has now become a liability. “The Papaya rules are going to haunt them, but they're standing by being fair for both cars,” he said.

Verstappen, meanwhile, is the threat that refuses to go away. “You cannot get rid of Max. He is the nightmare that keeps coming,” Montoya said. He believes Red Bull’s public criticism of Antonelli for losing two points shows how desperate the team is to capitalise on McLaren’s mistakes.

If Verstappen leads in Abu Dhabi, Montoya expects Piastri to be instructed to support Norris. “They’ve got to focus on Lando if that is the case,” he said.

Montoya issued a stark warning. “If Piastri wants to be a reserve driver next year, then yes,” he said when asked about the possibility of defying orders.

He added: “If he disobeyed orders for a world championship and McLaren loses the championship because Oscar didn't follow the rules then all hell would break loose. If I personally owned that team, he wouldn't be driving for me the year after. I would make him a reserve driver, and I make sure he's there every week watching.”

The mood inside the team after Qatar was grim according to Montoya: “I think everybody was in suicide watch. The realisation that Max has a genuine chance of being world champion hit them in the stomach harder than anything else.”

His message for Abu Dhabi is uncompromising, saying: “The idea is not to implement team orders, but in the case that Max is leading, we're going to protect ourselves and you, Oscar, are going to cover Lando. McLaren shouldn’t be afraid to run two different strategies.”

He believes clarity will remove tension; he stated: “They need to come out publicly and say it.

He also believes Piastri must join them publicly, adding: “Oscar needs to be realistic about his chances. If Lando doesn't have any problems, then Oscar really doesn't have a chance at the championship.”

Montoya’s final word is simple: "If Piastri cannot beat Norris on track, he must help McLaren win the title."

Only then, he says, can the team avoid another Qatar-style collapse as the championship goes down to one last race.