Qatar GP Grid Walk: Piastri or Verstappen to delay Norris’ title party? 

After six races off the podium, Oscar Piastri finally seems to be back on his feet. The Aussie has been in imperious form ever since he arrived in Lusail, and he has a strong track record at this circuit. Fresh off the back of a Saturday Sprint victory, he’s surely the favourite to win on Sunday.

Max Verstappen, who McLaren boss Zak Brown compared to a “horror movie villain” that doesn’t make mistakes, is also right in the mix. Despite his car bouncing all over the place, the four-time F1 Champion has somehow qualified P3. No doubt he’ll be aggressive into Turn 1—the Papaya boys will need to watch their mirrors; Verstappen now has nothing to lose!

But it’s Norris who’s in the driving seat. If he wins the Qatar Grand Prix, he’s World Champion no matter what.

Picking up two podiums at the final two events would also be enough. This buffer has relaxed him all weekend so far. No risks required; the Brit remains in full control.

Mercedes have been a genuine threat at the last couple of events. George Russell finished second in Las Vegas and in Saturday’s Sprint. If Verstappen is unable to get past Norris early on, he could become a factor in the Dutchman’s race, especially during the pit windows. Yuki Tsunoda also acted as a “rear gunner” in the Sprint; he won’t be there in the main event.

Further back, it’s a real mixed bag. Ferrari have been shambolic so far this weekend. Lewis Hamilton was incredulous in the Sprint, wondering how setup changes managed to make his car even worse. Charles Leclerc also struggled to hold on in qualifying, dramatically spinning out at the end. It’s a new low for Ferrari; they’ll struggle to get both cars back into the top ten.

On a more positive note, Carlos Sainz held on to P7 after a bizarre incident saw him drive a garage floor sticker onto the track in qualifying. Isack Hadjar, who was unlucky not to score points in the Sprint, is a place higher in sixth. He’ll be looking over his shoulder, but the Frenchman is having another stormer.

Fernando Alonso also qualified in the top ten, yet again. Having previously picked up P3 for Alpine and P4 for Aston Martin, he loves this track. Remarkably, Pierre Gasly will start in P10, ahead of both Ferraris. There are faster cars behind, but this narrow, high-speed circuit isn’t built for overtaking. If previous events are anything to go by, he’ll be difficult to get past.

In the Sprint, Verstappen piled on the pressure in the opening laps. It’ll likely be the same in the main event—it’s almost certainly going to be his best opportunity to overtake the McLarens.

All three of the previous races in Qatar have been won by those who set the fastest lap in quali, making Piastri the nailed-on favourite. Norris is on the dirty side of the grid; it’d be logical for him to avoid taking any risks. So the door could be left slightly ajar for Verstappen to divebomb.

Once drivers settle in for the long haul, strategy and tyre management will take over. Pirelli have introduced a slightly weird 25-lap tyre limit this weekend. Across the 57 laps, there will therefore be two mandatory pit windows. Critics will say this limits teams’ strategy options, but in truth, more pit stops mean a greater number of opportunities for under- and over-cutting.

After qualifying, Norris said it’d be “pretty straightforward” from turn one onwards. Verstappen also admitted that it’ll “realistically be quite tough” to compete. Stranger things have happened, but he needs a well-timed Safety Car or inter-team fighting to stay in contention. Everything is championship-critical now, and Lando Norris has one hand on his maiden Drivers’ Title.