What will Verstappen do if the Red Bull RB21 is a sh!tbox?

The Red Bull RB21 has thus far not impressed Verstappen who is hunting a fifth F1 world title in a row this season. However, early indications are that the Dutchman was not bluffing when downplaying his chances in Melbourne this weekend, to start with.

With 11 GPs under his belt, 23-year-old, Liam Lawson has been thrust into the Lion's Den as Verstappen teammate and, if Max is struggling, the Kiwi in the other car for the first time as a fully-fledged Red Bull driver will be worse off for obvious reasons.

While it is ultra-early to read too much into FP1 and FP2 in Melbourne today, Verstappen ended the day down in P7 and 0.624s down on Charles Leclerc's benchmark lap time with the handy Ferrari. A year ago in FP1 at Albert Park, the #1 RBR was P2 and less than a tenth of a second down on Lando Norris' McLaren who ended the session fastest that day.

This brings us to the headline question: What if the Red Bull RB21 remains half a second off the race-winning pace? Sure Verstappen will make the difference no matter how bad the car is because he is Max, he will wrestle any thing he gets to drive to a few wins. But if it all is too much of a struggle, he may wonder where the likes of Adrian Newey and Jonathan Wheatley are to give him a winning car. Newey of course is at Aston Martin...

ex-Formula 1 drivers Jacques Villeneuve, Johnny Herbert and Juan Pablo Montoya have theories about Verstappen’s future, and the Dutchman dressing up in green is not off the cards according to them.

Regarding the headline question, Montoya ventured that the ‘key ingredients’ for world titles will be at Aston Martin, in the future where Newey sits down at his drawing board each day: "That's a really interesting question. I think Aston Martin will probably put Fernando Alonso out, personally speaking. I think if Red Bull is not competitive this year, there might be a chance that Max Verstappen could jump ship at the end of the year.

"If Red Bull runs half-decent, I think Max might give them a year. Max won all the championships with Honda and with Adrian Newey, both now at Aston Martin, so two of the key ingredients are there," added Montoya.

Verstappen's contract is set to run out at the end of 2028, but be sure the Dutch ace has clauses that could see him leave at any time. And what team wants a driver racing for them if he wants to be elsewhere? Lewis Hamilton proved that 20 years of loyalty to one brand - Mercedes - was fast relegated to history as the seven-time F1 World Champion fell in love very fast with Ferrari, and they adore him. His first love was quickly forgotten.

Which brings the conversation to the elephant in the room: Lance Stroll. The Poor Little Rich Kid would have no seat in F1 if his father, Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll did not fork the bill. He staying and Alonso getting th axe, despite his age, is what will happen.

So predicts Montoya: "Lawrence Stroll wants his kid to be a world champion and wants to give him the best shot. I think Lance knows that too and I'm sure he wants to be as prepared as possible for it.

"You wouldn’t have spent all these years building up Lance and when you get a winning car not have the person you’ve invested a lot in. That doesn’t make sense," ventured Montoya.

1997 F1 World Champion Jacques Villeneuve has his own theory: "It depends on what's available. Maybe next year there's not an exciting team available for Max Verstappen to leave to join. Even if most teams would want him, maybe the opportunity is not there.

"It's really difficult to understand. He is a peculiar driver. He really drives to the limit and is always on it. He needs a specific car. Not every car would suit his driving style. He seems to love very precise cars, very pointy cars with a very good front end, and he can manage the rear. Not many drivers can do that or can do that consistently and not many cars get driven like this or are designed like this.

"Basically the way he drives and the way the car then gets developed makes it really difficult for Formula 2 drivers because they come from an inherently understeering car in Formula 3, and Formula 2 they're designed similarly — huge amounts of understeer so they drive differently," explained Villeneuve.

Former F1 driver turned pundit Johnny Herbert also weighed in on the headline question: "It will be all about the package. Max knows very much how the inner sanctum works at Red Bull. But there is a change now because the relationship that Red Bull have had with Honda, which has been very positive, has ended. From 2026 it’s a different scenario with Ford.

"There's rumours that it's been tougher than they ever expected and it hasn't been as positive as they were expecting. That makes your decision much easier when you know that it's not going quite to plan with the power unit itself, and then you know that the power unit that you were successful with is going to be at the Aston Martin as well along with Adrian Newey."

As for the 'billion-dollar deal' to lure Verstappen to Aston Martin, Herbert said: "It makes total sense. Max is no fool. Max is going to be wanting to place himself in the best place that will give him that chance of winning races in a world championship.

"If all those elements aren't working where he is at the present time, as I've heard on the Ford front, and an opportunity came at Aston Martin, I would be shocked if Max wouldn't bite and go for it. Because he knows very well that potentially, with Adrian and with the Honda, Aston Martin will be the place to be.

"Would you give up the place to be just to stay at something that's been good to you over the last couple of years? Racing drivers don't work like that. Max doesn't work like that. Max is there to win. And as he said over this year, you know, it's all about winning. That’s exactly what he wants to do.

Christian has said Max is not going anywhere. I know he's got the contract until 2028 but again contracts don't mean anything if performance is not there. Champions who I've known have always had a performance clause," revealed Herbert to the Media Team at CasinoApps.com.

While the first race weekend can be an anomaly. Signs are there that Red Bull have work to do to get the car in the window of performance from where Verstappen can weave his magic. Time will tell if the non-Newey-designed RB21 is for Max or not.