Was it on? Was it not on? The debate will rage forever, but the truth is Sebastian Vettel was the architect of his own downfall at the Japanese Grand Prix when he lunged to the inside of Max Verstappen into the highspeed Spoon Curve, seeing a gap which in the end was not there.
If there was a sliver of a chance, it was rapidly shut by the Red Bull resulting in contact with the Ferrari coming off second best. He recovered to finish sixth, but the damage was done.
Downfall is a harsh word, but alas it summarises the incident at Suzuka and what it means to the German's ultra-slim title chances. He now trails championship leader Lewis Hamilton by 67 points, with four rounds remaining.
On his slow down lap it was a sombre Vettel who reported to his team over the radio: "Okay, not much to say, I think enough has been said, I don't know... if I don't go for that gap and the gap was there... may as well stay at home. Sorry for the result."
At one point earlier in the season Ferrari and Vettel were on a high, but a remarkable collapse of their own doing, after the German's last victory at Spa-Francorchamps, has seen them slump way behind in both the drivers' and constructors' championships.
The reversal of fortunes between Vettel and Hamilton since the British Grand Prix:
| Grand Prix | Hamilton | Sebastian | Difference |
| Britain | 163 | 171 | +8 |
| Germany | 188 | 171 | -17 |
| Hungary | 213 | 189 | -24 |
| Belgium | 231 | 214 | -17 |
| Italy | 256 | 226 | -30 |
| Singapore | 281 | 241 | -40 |
| Russia | 306 | 256 | -50 |
| Japan | 331 | 264 | -67 |
Ferrari had the best chance since the dawn of the new turbo era to dethrone Mercedes this season, but the Italian team has made some dubious calls while their star driver has made far too many errors while his rival simply got stronger:
Vettel mistakes during his 2018 campaign:
| Grand Prix | Session | Incident |
| Azerbaijan | Race | Locked up when battling Bottas for the lead, finished fourth |
| France | Race | Collided with Bottas at the start, finished fifth |
| Austria | Qualifying | Blocked Sainz, penalised five grid places, finished third |
| Germany | Race | Crashed into the barriers while leading comfortably, DNF |
| Italy | Race | Collided with Hamilton on the first lap, finished fourth |
| Japan | Qualifying | Spin during the final Q3 flying lap, qualified ninth |
| Japan | Race | Collided with Verstappen, finished sixth |
After the race at Suzuka on Sunday afternoon, Vettel cut a forlorn figure when he spoke to reporters but nevertheless managed to see the bright side of a dire situation, "I found it quite inspirational walking through the garage and watching the guys work!"
"All the team is fired up and that certainly helps, as the last couple of weeks haven’t been that easy. The spirit is unbroken despite everything."
"Races like this are a bit of a hand-over and we know it is difficult from where we are in the point standings, but we don’t have much to lose."
"We have given everything so far and I believe there’s still something we can learn and understand from the car. So we keep fighting and resisting and we’ll see what the other races bring."
Of his costly contact with Verstappen, Vettel said, "He is quick, but it doesn't help also the way he came back onto the track with Kimi."
"I don't want this to end up as 'Seb says this, Max says this'. I will talk about it with him when it is the right time, so this way I would prefer, but you ask me these questions so I give you my answer."
Amid criticism of his impatience so early in the race, the German explained, "What do you think about how many times you can afford to wait? Obviously I am racing not just him. I am racing also the guys in front ideally."
"His battery was derating. I saw the light flashing, I saved up my battery on the way up through the Esses trying to stay close, and I had a good exit from the hairpin. I had a big tow through Turn 12, and was side-by-side when we hit the brakes and turn in."
"I had similar encounters with others and we managed to make it through the corner. It is not the prime overtaking spot, but if you are side-by-side then I think it is fair in that scenario and that occasion. I did my best to try to avoid contact but if he kept closing then where am I supposed to go?"
In 1990 at the Australian Grand Prix, the late great Ayrton Senna delivered his immortal line: "If you no longer go for a gap that exists, you are no longer a racing driver."
Big Question: Was the gap to Max into Spoon worth the risk for Seb?