The state of the Formula 1 Silly Season according to Montoya

The Formula 1 Silly Season is starting to ramp up as several drivers have uncertain futures in the top flight, while Cadillac's F1 foray brings with it two more seats on the grid.

As it stands, Max Verstappen is signed at Red Bull until 2028, while McLaren have Oscar Piastri tied down through 2027 and Lando Norris until at least 2026. Lewis Hamilton is locked in at Ferrari until 2027 alongside Charles Leclerc.

George Russell is set to sign a new deal and rookie Kimi Antonelli has a multi-year deal. Aston Martin have Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll secured through 2026, and Alpine’s Pierre Gasly is contracted until at least the same season.

Further down the grid, Alex Albon is a Williams man until 2027, with Carlos Sainz alongside him until 2026, and Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto signed to Kick Sauber aka Audi on multi-year terms.

Several names, however, including Yuki Tsunoda, Isack Hadjar, Liam Lawson and Franco Colapinto, face uncertain futures with deals that expire at the end of 2025.

Against this backdrop of knowns and unknowns, Indy 500 and Grand Prix winner, Juan Pablo Montoya has cast his eye over the Silly Season, with a mix of straightforward calls and eyebrow-raising predictions.

Montoya believes the Aston Martin situation is pivotal: “Lance Stroll is going to wait for next year. It’s your family team and you’ve been there for all the time they’ve been down and struggling; wouldn't you wait to see if you can win a race or have a shot at a championship, having Honda and Adrian Newey? They don't have an easy decision. That's the problem. There's not a lot of choice.”

The Colombian sees Verstappen as the ultimate trigger for market chaos: “When Max Verstappen comes out, maybe next year and says I'm free, how many teams are really gonna be open to taking him? McLaren are out of the picture. Ferrari? Maybe.

"I think Carlos Sainz could go back to Ferrari, but he would also be great for Red Bull. Red Bull needs experience. If Max says he’s leaving, who are you going to bring in? Another rookie? And you're then going to end up with four rookies in two struggling teams? I would have taken Carlos in a heartbeat. Red Bull should go for Carlos and break his contract and take him out of Williams," ventured Montoya.

The picture at Alpine is less clear with Colapinto on a race-by-race arrangement: “That's the million-dollar question. Franco Colapinto has got it tough at the moment. He did a really good job in the Williams, but he made a lot of mistakes.

"He was really fast. Gasly, though, is very, very good. Colapinto’s results compared with Jack Doohan? They're very similar. The question is, do Alpine want to keep him? And if not, who do you bring? Is it better to get rid of Colapinto and bring a guy like Yuki?”

Montoya is sceptical about suggestions of Alonso reuniting with Flavio Briatore at Alpine but does not rule it out entirely: “If Fernando Alonso goes to Alpine on a two-year deal, it means that George Russell has gone to Aston Martin. I think Alonso has a long-term contract with Aston Martin.

"Why would Alonso want to leave? The only way for Alonso to leave Aston is if they don't want him there. “The only thing you would say about the possibility of Fernando going to Alpine is that they have a Mercedes engine, they don't have a bad car and Flavio Briatore is there and Briatore and Fernando are very, very close.

"George possibly becoming available puts Aston in a very difficult situation. They have got Adrian Newey and Honda. Then they will ask themselves, ‘Are we comfortable with the drivers we have?’”

Montoya’s assessment underlines the fragility of the current market: many contracts run long, but the dominoes can fall quickly if Verstappen decides to move or if Aston Martin’s Honda era reshuffles its driver deck.