Round 5 of the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship, the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix at the sparkling but perilous Jeddah Corniche Circuit has all the ingredients of a humdinger: "The lasagna is in the oven, now we wait for it to cook." As they say!
And cooking it will be at the Saudi GP tonight in Jeddah. Expect Safety Cars to play a big role. So much so that the utterly brilliant Max Verstappen and ever better Oscar Piastri, pre-race favourites, could be ambushed by Lando Norris. The “f@cking idiot” (as he called himself) starts P10 and will seek to make amends for the prang in Q3.
The reason Norris even has a chance is that’s the way of SC-infused races. Ditto, George Russell may find the kind of magic he needs in the surprisingly
not bad Mercedes to steal a win from the two starting ahead of him. More of them later.
In the 2 Soft Compounds preview of today’s Saudi GP, presenter Rick Houghton and I were tapped up for predictions:
- Paul Velasco: P1. Verstappen, P2. Piastri, P3. Russell.
- Rick Houghton: P1. Norris, P2. Piastri, P3. Antonelli.
Not a bad call from my end for Qualifying, but unlikely it’ll stay that way. Rick was brave to omit Russell, and more so, leaving Verstappen off the podium… At his peril.
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Verstappen or Piastri out of Turn 1 first on the opening lap?
The 200-metre drag race from the front row to Turn 1 will be telling. Both Verstappen and Piastri are wicked starters—expect them to get through and set the pace, with Russell and Leclerc in tow from Row 2. Four constructors on the first two rows—smile-inducing.
It should’ve been two Papayas on the front row for today’s race. They have the faster, arguably better car. But Norris pranging and Verstappen going mega when it mattered ripped up all pre-Qualy predictions.
That’s the first two rows, likely to stay pretty much in that order until pitstops or SCs start happening. SCs? Yes, multiple Safety Cars are on the cards for this one. If not, they aren’t driving fast enough. Also, this will be a physical race, one of high attrition. Don’t expect rookies flinging themselves with gay abandon around this place.
Indeed, it’s a rookie who heads up Row 3. A remarkable one too—18-year-old Antonelli’s shares are zooming up after a strong Qualifying. He lines up P5 behind his teammate on the Jeddah grid. Expect them to work together at the start. That should be the call from Mercedes, the only team with two cars in the top six.
Carlos Sainz is back! But keeping P6 will be a hard ask in the Williams, with Lewis Hamilton’s Ferrari and Yuki Tsunoda’s Red Bull in his mirrors—two better cars on paper than what the Spaniard is pedalling.
On a Tsunoda sidenote and observation. Sky TV and F1 TV commentators were raving all Friday and most Saturday about how 'close' the Japanese driver is to teammate Verstappen. He is not. Yuki is a mile away, make that one second away from the pole-winning #1 Red Bull, when it mattered.
Norris has the car to win, with a little luck
Pierre Gasly showed his experience with a strong showing for Alpine and will head up the fifth row. Norris will be wheeled into the P10 grid slot knowing he has a great deal to do. First, survive the midfield mayhem. Then get through it.
Norris might want to watch some Verstappen replays on how to win GPs from P10 or lower. A damage limitation afternoon on the cards for the 2025 F1 World Championship leader.
Beyond the top ten, Alex Albon will be using teammate Sainz as a marker—beating him will be top of the Thai driver’s race plan. Beside him on Row 6 is Racing Bulls’ Liam Lawson, who will probably take aim at Yuki for old time’s sake.
Row 7 is shared by Fernando Alonso and Isack Hadjar in the other Racing Bull. Worth noting: in 2004, when the rookie Frenchman was born, the veteran Spaniard was already 50 races into his Formula 1 career. Today, they start a Grand Prix side by side!
In fact, elder statesman Alonso is surrounded by Young Guns, with Oliver Bearman heading Row 8, lining his Haas up behind the Aston Martin. Alongside him: Lance Stroll, who I have down to be the first guy to prang today—or deliver an increasingly rare performance to remind us he was a better driver six years ago than he has been since. Be safe, Lance!
Rookies will be tested tonight in Saudi. Be safe, Boys!
I have a bad feeling about Jack Doohan. He doesn’t appear comfortable. Gasly is owning him. The Aussie, on the back foot from the moment Alpine signed Franco Colapinto, has a great deal to do and prove today. Surviving this race would be first prize for him, starting on Row 9.
Beside him is veteran Nico Hülkenberg in arguably what is the slowest car on the grid. Sauber’s final stand is proving to be a sad one, with little being spent on this dead programme—all resources and investment going the way of the Audi project, happening in 2026.
Heading the last row is Esteban Ocon, well bettered by Haas teammate Bearman in Qualifying. The Frenchman has a lot to do to turn that around. Rookie Gabriel Bortoleto will start last—and perhaps remain there all race long. For him and all the rookies, this Jeddah race will be testing.
That’s the grid walk for the 2025 Saudi Grand Prix. [Written before (if any) driver/s start from the pit lane.]
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