At the start of any Formula 1 season, we always look to the qualifying and race of the first Grand Prix to provide an indication of the pecking order.
This year, the weather and subsequent trips to the wall made that opaque. The
2025 Chinese Grand Prix, however, provided us with a clearer picture.
Papaya rules!
Without wishing to take anything away from Oscar Piastri’s and Lando Norris’s efforts last weekend, the MCL39 was the class of the field; not to the extent of the RB19 back in 2022, but enough to leave the competition scratching their heads.
Only a spot of hubris in the team’s strategy department for SQ3 prevented them from a sprint and main race “full house”! With the strongest driver pairing bar, possibly Ferrari, they look a dead cert for the constructors' championship.
M&M
The closest to McLaren is the Mercedes in the hands of squadron leader George Russell. In proper Teutonic form, the team and Russell are consistently grinding out the results in both qualifying and the race.
At this stage of the game, they seem to be the closest to snatching a genuine victory from Team Papaya. However, this will be challenging without an effective wingman.
Kimi Antonelli has turned in some good performances, but he’s not there yet, although the signs are encouraging. The gap in lap times to his “captain” closed a little in Shanghai, and he is showing none of the youthful impetuousness he displayed at Monza last year.
Black Horse or Blue Bull?
The third tier is still ambiguous. It should be Ferrari, but Racing Bulls were clearly knocking on that door in the Chinese Grand Prix. The Maranello revival seemed set when Hamilton snatched the pole and the win for the sprint.
However, on Sunday, the alarm clock went off, and it turned out that it was all a dream. The cold light of the main race demonstrated two things: the VCARB 02 appeared to be a faster race car on the day, and the end plates of the SF-25 front wing should be removed.
Only poor tyre strategy and a mechanical failure prevented the junior Bulls from finishing mid-top ten, especially after Maranello’s double disqualification.
Some things don’t change
In terms of the drivers, Max Verstappen is still king, wringing out results in a car that’s difficult – ask Liam Lawson.
However, while Max is no doubt at his peak, Piastri continues to rise. His manoeuvre on Russel at the start of last weekend’s Grand Prix was “Max cold”. Parc Ferme looks forward to when the RB21 finds its competitiveness and we get to see the young Aussie slug it out with Verstappen on a more level playing field.
Turning Japanese
Meanwhile, for Liam Lawson, it would seem his stint in the senior team
is finished if not yet officially announced. Entering Red Bull’s revolving driver door as he exits is expected to be Yuki Tsunoda.
The fastest cars have always been the hardest to drive, but the RB21 appears to be just plain nasty. Verstappen nailed it when he suggested Lawson would go quicker in the VCARB 02, and there lies the problem. It’s more car than driver, and Tsunoda is unlikely to perform much better.
The young Kiwi kept him honest at Racing Bulls; expecting Yuki to drive the RB21 within two-tenths of Max,
doesn’t seem to be a realistic expectation.
Alpine transfusion?
Argentine Franco Colapinto might be a better option, but this will be expensive. I can see Don Flavio rubbing his hands and thinking about what concessions he can extract from Christian Horner, other than the money.
With this in mind, the urge to drop Yuki into the senior team seat for the Japanese Grand Prix must be hard to resist, even if it is a forlorn hope.
Red Bull seems to be between a rock and a hard place with both the cantankerous RB21 and finding a second driver that can tame it. By the way, has anyone seen or heard from Checo?