Lando Norris and McLaren are expected to emerge victorious in the forthcoming Formula 1 season. This is possible, but it’s far from a slam dunk. We saw the grid’s lap times close significantly in 2024. In 2025, they will only become narrower.
Ordinarily, this would suggest we are in for a real multi-team humdinger of a fight throughout the year. However, it will probably only last for the first half of the season.
With the 2026 regulations looming large, teams will quickly align their budgets if too much light appears between them and the front.
McLaren retain the F1 constructors' title?
While this is probably the most likely outcome, it doesn’t necessarily mean a McLaren pilot will lift the F1 driver’s title.
Norris “cowboyed up” in the latter half of the season. However, I saw no sign that the race craft required to better Max Verstappen emerging. In fact, Parc Ferme anticipates he will be at the wrong end of the race results this year versus his feisty teammate.
Norris will regularly out-qualify Oscar. However, Piastri will almost undoubtedly out-race Lando. Good luck there, Zak; Papaya rules may require some additional clauses!
Lewis Hamilton wins the 2025 F1 drivers’ championship?
Wishful thinking for some, and an anathema for others, in particular the family Schumacher. Uncle Ralf has been at great pains to talk down the chances of Hamilton experiencing success at Maranello, primarily citing Lewis’s inability to build the team around him like his older brother did.
I would agree. No one did that better than Michael. However, that’s a limiting optic that I fear is driven more by the threat to the Schumacher legacy than a serious evaluation. A seven-time F1 world champion loses some of his feathers once the eight-time one is crowned.
Hamilton taking that accolade in a Ferrari is a story that F1 wants, the Tifosi want, and Liberty wants. In the fantasy world of F1, such a tailwind rarely fails to deliver. Sorry Ralf, no one is buying what you’re pedalling here.
Not now, but later…
However, whilst Parc Ferme envisages the forty-year-old winning in red this year, the eighth F1 title, if it happens, is more likely to materialize in 2026 than in 2025.
Unless Ferrari has a game-changing tweak, this season will probably see him breaking in the saddle of his prancing horse. Evolution rather than revolution is a more realistic prognosis. He will also be up against one of the best qualifiers in F1 – Charles Leclerc.
The reality of achieving an eighth championship will be tested here. Can Lewis find his one-lap mojo again?
Max Verstappen comes third in the drivers’ championship?
Usually, I would not bet against Max, but this year, he will be up against it. Not that I think his racing prowess has diminished, in fact, quite the opposite. I believe the four-time F1 world champion is at his zenith.
It’s the team that might struggle. The Adrian Newey effect will now have entirely dissipated, and this year, Red Bull is minus another key cog in their gearbox: Race Director Whisperer - Jonathan Wheatley.
Now deservedly Team Principal at Sauber/Audi/Qatar, Wheatley’s loss may be felt more acutely than Newey’s.
However, with Liam Lawson replacing Sergio Perez, we can expect Red Bull to have a decent tilt at the Constructors Championship. That’s as long as he follows the “Good Doctor’s orders: Roll over, fetch… good boy Liam.
2025’s wooden spoon?
Talking of Sauber/Audi/Qatar/Stake – delete as appropriate; the bottom of the table looks more of a certainty. Neither a resurgent Nico Hulkenberg nor the dazzling talents of Gabriel Bortoleto are likely to make this dead cat bounce.
There’s a lot of work required to make the car competitive, and this will take time. It’s unlikely this team will challenge the top tier for at least another three years. Whilst Hulkenberg can afford to tool around at the rear of the grid, it’s a shame for the young Brazilian.
Still, I’m sure he won’t reside there for long; I can see a gap opening up at McLaren soon…
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