Outside Line: Why Verstappen will stay at Red Bull Ford in 2026

Christian Horner is out. Laurent Mekies is in. That alone would be seismic, but the story behind the scenes at Red Bull is what really matters. And it's really blurry and fodder for speculation about Red Bull and their star driver, Max Verstappen.

According to our lady in the paddock, Agnes Carlier, the chatter around in the Spa-Francorchamps paddock on the matter is relentless. Red Bull’s internal war has spilled into public view, the headlines still ablaze after Horner’s firing. And now, with Round 13 ahead, Mekies steps up to run the show. The piranhas have circled, the media and hangers-on jostling to pick over the bones of a crumbling empire.

Let’s be clear. This isn’t about Racing Bulls or junior team optics. Mekies now leads the most valuable piece of Red Bull’s sporting portfolio. They may sponsor surfers, skateboarders, football clubs, and fringe championships, but Formula 1 is the crown jewel. Red Bull Racing is what delivers brand equity in 50 countries every Sunday.

Make no mistake, Red Bull built an empire off caffeine and chaos. But F1 became a side industry within the conglomerate, a personal passion project of the late Dietrich Mateschitz. A plaything, yes, but an incredibly successful one. The race team Horner built in Milton Keynes is not just a chassis shop. It’s a works team now, delivering power units and also Championships.

But how long does that make sense to a corporate board in Salzburg?

I’ll say it plainly. I believe this is the beginning of the end for Red Bull’s ownership of the team. With Ford waiting in the wings for 2026, and the internal politics between Thai shareholders, Austrian executives, and the British faction spilling over, this feels like an exit strategy in motion.

Red Bull will stay involved. They’ll slap their logo on the nosecone of the F1 Fords, maybe even remain title sponsor. But the decision-making, the power structure will shift to the Americans in charge of the project.

We are not watching the same Red Bull team that swept titles with Horner at the helm. The cracks started with the 'sexting' messaging scandal, but the rot set in when Horner’s authority was publicly challenged and ultimately erased. Which brings us to Max.

You don’t ditch a Christian Horner unless something bigger is in play. And the most plausible scenarios? One. Verstappen signed a pre-contract elsewhere, with Mercedes or Aston Martin, and is leaving Red Bull. Two. With Horner dropping the ball too often this past year and a half, the brain drain and a really bad car that only Max can drive, he may have issued an ultimatum. Horner goes, or I do.

Team Verstappen, aka Red Bull Racing, suddenly turns cooperative. Max tours the factory to signal his intent ahead of the weekend in Belgium. There is silence from Marko and Jos. And Mekies, the quiet operator, gets the nod. Trust me, if this were about performance alone, Horner would still be on the pit wall.

Let’s be honest. Verstappen has no reason to panic about his future. Any team will have him if they can afford him and also provide a winning package. He’s young. He’s a four-time Formula 1 World Champion. And holds all the cards. I don’t believe he’s going to Mercedes, at least not yet.

Why? Because firstly, Mercedes finally started saying the right things about George Russell this week. Toto Wolff is now publicly backing both the Englishman and Kimi Antonelli. But the fact that it took this long, the fact that he waited on Max’s decision, suggests an offer was made, which should register as a strike in Russell’s book.

You either believe in your driver or you don’t. You don’t leave him dangling while you court someone else.

In this game, perception is everything. Red Bull’s perception has changed. They’re no longer bulletproof. Horner is gone. Mekies is under pressure. Verstappen seems content for now. And Ford is just waiting for the moment to step in to free Red Bull, so they can focus on selling energy drink cans.