Outside Line: Sainz Sr. versus Ben Sulayem no contest

Every four years, the FIA holds an election where delegates and members vote either for a new president or to extend the current president’s term at the helm of Formula 1’s governing body. The next one takes place this December. Sainz Sr. vs Ben Sulayem?

In 2021, Ben Sulayem was elected and has since led the organisation, though not without controversy. It would be fair to say that the current FIA President is not the most popular man in the Formula 1 paddock.

However, don’t be fooled by that. The European media have largely waged war on Ben Sulayem’s leadership style. Reports tend to be negative, while the President does himself no favours, photobombing every occasion he can during Grand Prix weekends and meddling in far too much, one could argue.

Yet, a snap survey reveals he has huge support from the member clubs and organisations that will cast the votes later this year.

From Jean Todt, his predecessor, Ben Sulayem inherited a limp, disorganised, bloated FIA — effectively leaving Formula 1 to its own devices.

In contrast, the Emirati—the first non-European to be elected to the most powerful post in world motorsport and motoring—has shaken up the organisation almost beyond recognition, with a leadership style that could fairly be called authoritarian. At the same time, reports suggest that the FIA is in a far better financial situation now than it was four years ago.

While Todt, in his final years, focused more on the social side of the organisation—motoring and non-motorsport matters—and adopted a largely hands-off approach to Formula 1 (first under Bernie Ecclestone, and then under Liberty Media), the reality is this: While the FIA has no say in the commercial side of Formula 1, it still writes the rules for the flagship series it governs.

Since Ben Sulayem took over, there have been numerous rule changes. Those that drew the most criticism include the jewellery saga, his public questioning of Formula 1’s value when Saudi Arabia was rumoured to be eyeing a purchase of the sport, and his conflict with The Wolffs, triggered by criticism of Susie Wolff’s appointment to lead the F1 Academy.

In other words, Ben Sulayem is his own man. He calls the shots at the FIA and expects everyone to fall in line. That’s always been his management style. I thought he might temper that approach on the international stage, but apparently not, as the revolving door of senior management during his tenure proves.

Yet, despite all this, Ben Sulayem has massive support. And I do not believe there is a single challenger on the horizon who could dethrone him. Frankly, the return of Sheila Ann Rao and the appointment of Malcolm Wilson as FIA Deputy President are two of the shrewdest political moves he has made.

Having said that, Carlos Sainz Sr. is probably the best imaginable candidate to run the organisation. But to jump into the ring now, less than a year before the election, is not the wisest move. I’m predicting that he will lose.

It might be close, but honestly, I don’t see any candidate right now being able to mount a serious challenge to the powers that currently rule the FIA.

Why? Ben Sulayem and his team have spent the last four years consolidating their power by currying favour with the organisations and clubs that vote. How? By introducing motoring programmes, motorsport development schemes, educational initiatives, and taking traditional FIA events to new regions, such as Rwanda for the annual Prize Giving, where motorsport World Champions receive their trophies.

All of this has been part of a carefully measured campaign of inclusiveness, which will eventually translate into votes. And it’s all supported by infrastructures that, if Ben Sulayem and his leadership team were to disappear, would likely collapse. These are projects designed to last far longer than a four-year cycle.

How can Carlos Sainz Sr. win this election? I don’t think he can. I believe he has no chance. It’s too much, too late. He missed the starting gun, and I don't see him catching up in the few months left before the election.

Granted, if he were forced to run, he might give Ben Sulayem a good challenge. His support base would be largely European, bolstered by those who admire what Sainz has achieved in motorsport. But I still don’t think that would be enough to capture the majority needed to make him FIA President.

Looking into my crystal ball, I cannot see Ben Sulayem losing the election. Hopefully, Sainz doesn’t challenge him just yet. Instead, he could start building for the future and go full tilt for the job in 2029, when he would have a far better chance. Then, may the best man win.

That might seem far away, but just consider how fast time has flown since 2021.

If Formula 1 fans, race drivers or media elected the FIA President, Ben Sulayem would lose by a landslide—and Sainz Sr. would win massively. But the media don’t vote.

The FIA-affiliated clubs and organisations do. Their bosses and presidents put the tick on the ballot. And, as mentioned above, if you did a snap survey beyond the European cabal, you’d find that Ben Sulayem has huge support beyond them.

And that support will simply make it virtually impossible for Sainz Sr. to be the next FIA President, in my opinion. And there are harsh realities to consider too.

The FIA President can serve more than two terms, but there is a limit. According to FIA statutes, a President may serve a maximum of three terms, each lasting four years. This means the maximum tenure is 12 years.

For example, Todt served three consecutive terms from 2009 to 2021. Ben Sulayem, elected in December 2021, is eligible for re-election in 2025 and, if successful again, could potentially serve until 2033.

The FIA comprises 245 member organisations across 149 countries. In Europe, the FIA Region I office, based in Brussels, represents 101 mobility clubs, including organisations from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.

While the exact number of European member clubs is not specified, many of those 101 are European. Each member country can have up to 24 votes in the FIA General Assembly—12 for sport and 12 for mobility. Some countries may have fewer votes if they have only one type of member organisation.

I did some basic maths using those numbers for a Ben Sulayem vs. Sainz Sr. match-up this December and it would be no contest. The current President will get another four years with ease, I predict.