Odds are Verstappen will drive for Mercedes if not Red Bull in 2026

Bookmakers William Hill have slashed the odds on Max Verstappen joining Mercedes in 2026 amid growing uncertainty about his future with the team.

The Dutchman, a four-time Formula 1 World Champion, is now 6/5 to join Mercedes next season, down from 2/1, following the leadership upheaval at Red Bull. Despite this, Red Bull remains the slight favourite at Even Money, drifting from 4/5 as doubts grow over internal stability.

William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said: "The sacking of Christian Horner has thrown the future of Red Bull into uncertainty, particularly that of star driver Max Verstappen. The Dutchman has been cut to 6/5 from 2/1 to make the move to Mercedes, they are now right on Red Bull’s heels in the market. A sabbatical has also come in from 10/1 to 9/1."

Aston Martin is next best at 6/1, with a year out of the sport - possibly in protest or reflection - just behind at 9/1.

The reasons for Horner's sacking as team principal could be: He lost Max to Mercedes and paid the price; or Team Verstappen gave Red Bull an ultimatum: Christian goes or we go.

Before Horner's demise, he insisted that Verstappen was committed to the team while Toto Wolff was reportedly hunting the Dutchman's signature. Given credibility when Mercedes did not announce George Russell's contract extension during the weekend of his home race at Silverstone, that ship has now sailed, and suggests the Englishman is not their first option.

On one hand, if Max does move to Mercedes, as odds suggest he might, how does he know the car will be good? Apparently, the Merc power unit is a rocket. On the other hand, the odds are even that he stays put at Red Bull as it partners with Ford next year. Apparently the Ford-PU is not a rocket!

But then, what about Aston Martin? Reuniting with Adrian Newey, spearheading the most ambitious and no-expense-spared projects in Formula 1 history? With Honda, who love Max like they did Ayrton Senna.

Three great choices for the four-time F1 World Champion to pick from. But which of them will be at the sharp end, winning Grands Prix and fighting for the title in 2026, remains to be seen

The odds shift reflects mounting speculation that Verstappen may be the next major figure to leave Red Bull following Horner’s exit, with Mercedes increasingly viewed as his most likely destination.

The timing of this saga could have a seismic effect not only on Formula 1 team leadership but also explode the 2026 Silly Season into high gear. What Max decides to do next season will trigger it all.