Verstappen Back in Title Contention after McLaren Blunder in Qatar

The Dutch driver finished Sunday’s race first, with Oscar Piastri finishing nearly 8 seconds behind in second and championship leader Lando Norris fourth after failing to pass Williams driver Carlos Sainz on the last lap for third.

Coming into the race weekend, Verstappen trailed the British driver by only 24 points after a last-minute disqualification in Las Vegas saw both McLarens disqualified for plank wear violations.

Still, Verstappen’s odds to stay in the championship contention were slim at the start of the Qatar weekend. Norris only needed to finish the weekend two positions higher than both Verstappen and teammate Piastri to win the title.

However, that didn’t come to fruition. The Briton finished two places behind Piastri in the sprint race, taking third, while the Dutchman could only finish fourth, nearly three seconds behind the McLaren. At this point, Verstappen’s chances were dimming. For Sunday’s race, Piastri started on pole and Norris second, Verstappen could only clutch third.

After lights out, the McLarens soared off, with Verstappen unable to keep in DRS of Norris, who remained second to his teammate. Verstappen’s chances still looked obsolete at this point, but a safety car brought out on lap seven, after Niko Hulkenberg’s Sauber collided with an Alpine, caused the majority of the grid to clamber into the pits for a new set of tyres, leaving both McLarens to stay out.

With both McLarens staying out, much to their drivers' chagrin, Verstappen and the rest of the field followed behind on a fresh set of tyres. A new rule introduced for this weekend, wherein every driver had to undergo a mandatory two-pit-stop strategy, left McLaren on the back foot.

If both drivers were to pit, they would end up behind Verstappen and would have to rely solely on their pace and determination to try to win the race, a scenario that immediately shifted race momentum — something closely watched by fans, analysts, and betting sites alike.

As the race unfolded, the worst outcome became reality for the British team. Piastri was left chasing Verstappen in the remaining laps to try and keep his title hopes alive, while Norris was finding it difficult to overtake Kimi Antonelli’s Mercedes and ultimately Sainz’s Williams, both cars that were arguably slower than the McLaren.

As Verstappen crossed the line in first, equalling the same amount of wins as Piastri and Norris for the season, it was safe to say that the Red Bull garage was left in astonishment as McLaren handed the team another win from a weekend they could’ve easily won.

Verstappen now trails Norris by only 12 points, while Piastri is 16 points behind, keeping his title hopes alive for the last race of the season.

Going into the Abu Dhabi weekend, Norris’ title chances are still statistically higher compared to those of Verstappen and Piastri. A calculation by an F1 statistics account on X, F1BigData, found that Norris has an 82.8% chance of winning the title, based on 6,840 different scenarios.

Following this, Verstappen has a 10.7% chance of winning, and Piastri has a 6.5% chance.

To win the title, Norris only needs to secure a podium. No matter the position, he will be crowned the 2025 world drivers’ champion, bringing an end to Verstappen’s four-year reign. If Norris places between fourth and seventh, the Briton can only win if Verstappen doesn’t win the race. If he places eighth, he can still win even if Verstappen gets third.

If, by chance, Norris has to retire from the race, he would need Verstappen out of the points and Piastri to score from third and below to win. Knowing all of this, it's clear to see that Norris may be the bettor's favourite going into the race weekend.

Sportsbook operator bet365 has Norris’ odds to win the championship at 2/7, with Verstappen at 11/4 and Piastri even lower at 14/1.

For the Australian driver, his chances to win the championship have all but faded. Piastri, who was having a generational run mid-season compared to his teammate, led the drivers' championship from Saudi Arabia up to Mexico, giving the impression that he was going to be a real contender in the championship.

However, back-to-back errors from the McLaren driver allowed teammate Norris to slowly catch up and reclaim the lead in Mexico by one point. A fifth place in Brazil, compared to Norris’ first, also cemented the Briton’s lead.

Piastri had a great run in Qatar, and it appeared that he would be back in the fight, winning the sprint race and getting pole for Sunday’s race. Yet, McLaren’s strategy blunder has all but removed Piastri from the championship fight. The Australian needs Norris to finish tenth or lower, and Verstappen to be off the podium to win.

There is still the chance that something could go wrong on Sunday, and Verstappen fans would be hoping that the Dutchman can reclaim his title.

For Verstappen to win the drivers' championship, he needs to win the race with Norris placing fourth or lower. If Verstappen comes second, Norris needs to finish eighth or lower, while Piastri has to come third or lower.

If, by some oddity, either driver becomes tied with Norris in points, the result would be decided by a countback, which means that the driver with the most wins would win the championship.

With each driver tied on seven wins, the countback would move to the number of second places, with Norris having eight second-place finishes compared to Verstappen’s five (and a possible six in Abu Dhabi), and Piastri’s four; he would be crowned the winner.