Japanese Grand Prix Grid Vurtual Walk: Max versus the Macs

Verstappen delivered one of his greatest Qualifying laps to claim pole position—his 41st in Formula 1—when 'sensible' pre-qualifying predictions pointed to a McLaren front-row lockout with Norris and Piastri. But no one told that to Verstappen, who took the troublesome Red Bull RB21 and hurled it around Suzuka faster than any man has ever done in the history of the circuit, denying McLaren yet again.

Norris and Piastri were not hanging about either. In the end, a mere 0..044s covering the trio is a testament to how close it is at the sharp end. It was the stuff of legend that we witnessed yesterday. And as I look ahead to today’s Japanese Grand Prix, we’re set for another Verstappen vs. McLaren showdown.

It’s going to take a “Big Mac” effort to beat the #1 Red Bull today, but equally, it will take Verstappen at his absolute best—and he seems to get better with every session. This should be an enthralling contest, not just into the roar of Turn 1 with Piastri and Norris swarming his mirrors, but over the race distance.

From P4, Charles Leclerc will be desperate to make amends for Ferrari's disqualification embarrassment in China. Verstappen needs a win to open his account for this campaign, McLaren arguably has the best car, and Ferrari have a point to prove. Those are the three key storylines that encompass the two front rows.

Behind them, it's an all-Mercedes third row: George Russell and Kimi Antonelli. The Italian rookie has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season and living up to the hype with ease. Russell is starting to assert himself as team leader, while the 18-year-old starts P6 alongside his far more experienced teammate—exactly what Mercedes would have wanted from their prodigious teenager.

Fellow rookie Isack Hadjar also continues to impress. He put the Racing Bulls car P7 with a mighty effort, especially considering he had his "nuts stuck in the seatbelt" during one of his laps—once freed from the “Nutcracker,” Hadjar delivered.

Next to him is the Frenchman's idol, Lewis Hamilton. The seven-time F1 world champion had an underwhelming qualifying for Ferrari, though he’s already tasted victory in red with that Sprint Race win two weeks ago. The Briton believes there’s more to come from the SF-25, so expect a fast-moving Ferrari from P8.

Alex Albon put in another strong showing to line up P9 for Williams. Once again, he outqualified Carlos Sainz, who continues to struggle and I'm seeing shades of Daniel Ricciardo with the Smooth Operator.

Another rookie, Haas driver Oliver Bearman, was superb. He made teammate veteran Esteban Ocon look like the journeyman he may believe he is, with a stunning lap around Suzuka. Bear in mind, that these Young Guns have never driven these cars at such a daunting and challenging venue.

Hats off to them. This new breed may have had a rocky start, but they are slowly, surely, becoming part of the Formula 1 narrative on merit and sheer bravery.

Pierre Gasly lines up P11 in the Alpine. Nobody's quite sure what that car will deliver on race day, but the French veteran is capable of surviving attritional races and should move forward if the Alpine plays along.

The oldest man on the grid starts P12—Fernando Alonso again thoroughly outqualifying teammate Lance Stroll. The Spaniard is yet to finish a race this season and therefore isn’t classified in the championship standings. He needs to make amends. If the car is terrible, he’ll probably park it. If it’s decent, expect Alonso to fly.

Liam Lawson, recently demoted from Red Bull, has handled the transition with grace. The team embraced his return, and the Kiwi rewarded them with P13. While no match for Hadjar, Lawson did outqualify the man who replaced him at Red Bull: local hero Yuki Tsunoda.

The Japanese driver lines up P14 and should take inspiration from seeing the sister Red Bull on pole. He’s looked comfortable in the RB21B despite its quirks but couldn’t extract the maximum in qualifying.

Sainz in P15 remains a mystery. James Vowles offered a baffling explanation about why the Sainz we know isn’t operating smoothly at Williams. He’s not alone with a new car—most of the grid has either changed teams, are rookies, or have limited experience with this generation of car. Still, Sainz being unable to match Albon is concerning. Talk is cheap—money buys the whisky.

One assumes Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto extracted everything possible from the Sauber. They line up P16 and P17 respectively.

Sainz was also his own worst enemy in qualifying. Apart from lacking the pace of Albon, impeding Hamilton on a hot lap—unlike a driver of his experience and status. Something is amiss.

Esteban Ocon starts P18 for Haas, while the back row is made up of Jack Doohan and Lance Stroll.

Rookie Doohan has been on the back foot all weekend: inexplicably benched for FP1 by Alpine, then crashing early in FP2. His recovery to make the grid is commendable—not just for him but the Alpine crew who worked tirelessly to repair the car.

As for Stroll… if there’s one driver who doesn't belong on the Formula 1 grid, there you have it. On all counts.

I said it on the 2 Soft Compounds podcast after China: I believed Verstappen would come out guns blazing at a track made for great drivers. His greatness was on display again on Saturday, and I have a feeling we’ll see it again today during what should be a riveting 39th edition of the Japanese Grand Prix.

If anyone can stop him, it’s one of the McLarens. As I visualise Turn 1, I see Verstappen and Piastri flat out into that uphill right-hander, with Norris tripping up—as he tends to—and Leclerc bobbing and weaving behind the trio, probably wondering how Ferrari will drop the ball this time.

Whatever the case, Suzuka is a daunting place. I hope all drivers stay safe, and that we’re writing about one of the great Japanese Grands Prix—to match the incredible qualifying session we saw on Saturday.