Inside Line: What next for Daniel Ricciardo?

Who should it be? Well, let’s dive in and have a not-at-all-premature look…

If their current predicament is anything to go by, Red Bull will have a lot of convincing to do if they want Ricciardo to stick around much longer. They haven’t had a truly competitive car in four years now, and as good as their chassis usually is, it matters little when they’re continually saddled with unreliable, underpowered Renault engines. Also given the team’s current relationship with Renault, they could find themselves with a customer supply or even worse, Honda engines come 2019.

Conversely, if Renault do get their act together in time for next season, Ricciardo will be competing for a championship, and even with Max Verstappen providing stiff opposition that won’t be easy to walk away from, especially given the drinks company is the only professional racing outfit Ricciardo has ever really known (no, HRT doesn’t count). Still, that’s an almighty leap for a team that’s set to finish this season almost 300 points down in the championship.

Likelihood of staying: 15%

The reigning four-time world champions, the appeal for Ricciardo is fairly obvious, but this is a prospect just as appealing to Mercedes as it is to the Aussie, should Valtteri Bottas continue to struggle.

As comfortably as he slotted in to his new surroundings in 2017, Bottas has never managed to find another level as the season has gone on, and it’s telling that Lewis Hamilton has blitzed his way to a championship while the Finn has as many blown poles (two) as he does victories. Assuming the Mercedes brass is seeing what the rest of us are seeing, Ricciardo simply looks like a better driver, and you would think if they have the chance to get an upgrade, they’d go for it.

From Ricciardo’s POV, it would certainly make a ton of sense, although if there’s anything working against such a move, it would be his fit as a partner to Hamilton. Assuming he backs himself to challenge the Briton, he’d be butting heads with a driver who hasn’t gotten along with any teammate who has ever seriously threatened him, and that would be a completely new experience for the happy-go-lucky Australian. No, it probably doesn’t trump the appeal of getting in on Mercedes’ dominance, but it might be a factor should the Silver Arrows fail to maintain quite the same level in 2018.

Likelihood of joining: 35%

While Mercedes might have to do some soul-searching before replacing Bottas with Ricciardo, for Ferrari the move to replace Kimi Raikkonen should be a no-brainer – and what Ferrari wants, Ferrari usually gets.

Maybe it’s disinterest, maybe it’s age, but Raikkonen has shown since re-joining the Scuderia he is simply not up to the standard of a no. 2 driver, let alone contending for the championship in his own right. In Ricciardo, they’d be getting a driver more than up to the challenge, and one with a proven track-record of matching Vettel when it comes to performance on-track. In addition, it can’t be discounted the appeal of an ‘Italian’ driver at the Scuderia and, all things considered, Ricky-Ardo is the closest they can get.

Of course, they’ll need a strong car to keep-up with Mercedes, but given the auxiliary factors Ferrari can offer – more money, less PR commitments, and driving for the F1 equivalent of Real Madrid – their candidacy won’t be as completely dependent on performance as the other suitors. Assuming they do challenge for the title in 2018, the only potential negative is Sebastian Vettel jockeying for no. 1 status, but even that’s less of a concern seeing as Ricciardo has already partnered the German amicably in the past. As long as they don’t completely cock-up their 2018 car, they should be in pole position for the Aussie’s signature.

Likelihood of joining: 50%