How many 2025 F1 Young Guns will survive the full season?

Although, some might argue that with 11 GP starts for Racing Bull last year hardly makes him a rookie. But a Young Gun he is, one who did not live up to expectations. With the ruthless nature of Formula 1 on full display this past week, attention now turns to who might be next the next rookie to fall. Trust betting companies to make the most of the opportunity by offering odds.

According to a study by the media team at Gambling.com, Alpine’s Jack Doohan with one Grand Prix last year and two more this year on his CV is the leading candidate to follow Lawson out of a race seat.

Australian rookie Jack Doohan has been priced at 4/5 to be the next to lose his seat after underwhelming performances in Melbourne and Shanghai. With highly-rated Argentine driver Franco Colapinto serving as Alpine’s reserve, speculation is mounting that the team could make a change within the next few races.

Many in the paddock see Colapinto as a long-term prospect with stronger potential, and the pressure is mounting on Doohan to deliver results quickly. A poor showing in the next rounds could accelerate his departure.

Isack Hadjar is next on the list at 3/1, having endured a turbulent start with Red Bull’s junior team, Racing Bulls. After narrowly missing Q3 in Australia, the French driver crashed on the formation lap and reacted emotionally — behaviour that drew a stinging rebuke from Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko, who described it as “embarrassing.”

While his performance in China was more encouraging, poor strategy robbed him of points. Nonetheless, Hadjar remains under scrutiny and faces the challenge of proving his long-term value to the Red Bull system.

Further down the odds list, Gabriel Bortoleto (5/1) and Oliver Bearman (7/1) appear more secure in their seats, having made respectable starts to their F1 careers.

Bortoleto joined Sauber after winning the FIA F3 and F2 titles back-to-back — a rare achievement — though Marko unfairly labelled the Brazilian a “B-grade” talent. So far, he has proved his doubters wrong, avoided major mistakes and is seen as a solid long-term bet for the team.

Bearman, meanwhile, impressed the paddock last year when he stood in for Carlos Sainz at Ferrari in Saudi Arabia, scoring points on debut. The young Brit is regarded as a future Ferrari candidate and is central to Haas’s long-term vision.

At the other end of the spectrum, Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli is rated 15/1 to lose his seat — making him the least likely rookie to be dropped. Despite a tough qualifying in Australia, the Italian recovered brilliantly to finish fourth in the race, just behind teammate George Russell.

While his performance in China was more mixed, Mercedes remain fully committed to Antonelli’s development. The team has invested heavily in nurturing the 18-year-old into a future title contender, and any mid-season replacement is considered highly unlikely.

With six full-time rookies on the 2025 Formula 1 grid — Doohan, Lawson, Hadjar, Bortoleto, Bearman and Antonelli — the pressure to perform is intense. Teams are quick to pull the trigger if expectations aren’t met, and as Lawson has already discovered, Formula 1 shows little mercy.

With Colapinto in the wings, Doohan now finds himself on the brink and needing results ASAP, while Hadjar will be measured against Lawson who he should beat to be considered as the next heir to the number two Red Bull. For the rest, steady performances will be essential in proving they belong at the sport’s highest level.