Dutch GP Virtual Grid Walk: David versus the Goliaths at Zandy

Yes, toss a coin. Heads, Norris. Tails, Piastri. That’s about as close as one can get to guessing who will be world champion this year. The McLarens are on another planet with their car; their drivers keep raising the bar like an upward-only seesaw.

And while where the title ends up is for the McLaren boys to battle it out, today at Zandvoort, painted' Army orange everywhere, the stage is set for a Max Verstappen miracle.

Sure, Piastri starting from P1 and Norris in P2 make it their race to lose. Verstappen, their nemesis so often, might just find the right inspiration to drag that finicky Red Bull to the top step of his home race.

Yet a hunch has me believing Verstappen is set for one of those great drives we know he can deliver. He seems to have more of a handle on the car than he did in Hungary, though it will be a tough ask to beat such a dominant McLaren.

Bear in mind, Norris won this race last year by 22 seconds. Still, as I always say in these previews: when in doubt, bet on Max. I believe of the top three, he will win this one as for who beats who between Piastri and Norris, I’ll just toss that coin again.

And then there’s another outstanding performance from Isack Hadjar, who gave Red Bull plenty to think about by powering to a magnificent P4 on the grid. He starts longside Verstappen on Row 2, ahead of some hallowed company, including his idols, Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton.

If Hadjar can hang on to his career-best P4, it will probably be his greatest weekend yet. But it will be a tough ask, as the junior team must execute at the level of the senior outfit to keep their young star in the hunt. Once again, Hadjar has taken a big step forward.

George Russell will start from P5 at Zandvoort, salvaging a decent grid slot for Mercedes after a subdued weekend of practice. He was again much quicker than rookie teammate Kimi Antonelli, who lines up only 11th. Alongside Russell is Charles Leclerc, marginally faster than Lewis Hamilton, who has to settle for P7.

Hamilton shares row four with Liam Lawson. The Racing Bull is a car that looks far more drivable than the senior Red Bull effort.

Carlos Sainz heads row five after edging Alex Albon. Williams boss James Vowles insists they have a stronger race car than a qualifying package, but Sunday will be the real test.

Fernando Alonso completes the top ten, lining up next to Sainz. The Spaniard had looked set for a top-six berth on practice pace alone, but when it mattered in qualifying, the Aston Martin was simply not there.

Less than a second covers the top 15. The top five are split by half a second. Zandvoort, with its multiple apexes and tricky approaches, leaves little room for error and even less for overtaking.

This will reward the brave, but more likely it will punish the foolish. Add rain to the equation, as has been threatened all weekend, and the race could quickly turn chaotic. That sort of scenario is Verstappen territory. If anyone can pull a rabbit out of a hat, it is Max in front of his home crowd.

Beyond the top ten, there were few surprises except Yuki Tsunoda, again the slowest of the four Red Bull cars in 12th. For all the talk of him improving, his form makes a mockery of that spin doctoring.

Gabriel Bortoleto was again impressive, dragging his Sauber to 13th and beating Nico Hülkenberg, who starts 17th. Pierre Gasly out-qualified Franco Colapinto, but Alpine had to settle for 14th and 16th. Haas were woeful, Esteban Ocon 18th and Ollie Bearman 19th.

And then there is Lance Stroll. After crashing on Friday and again on Saturday, the Canadian props up the grid. The contrast with Alonso could not be greater: the Spaniard starts 10th and has now beaten his teammate 27–0 in qualifying this season. It is an embarrassing statistic that says it all.

So where does this leave the fight at the sharp end? McLaren once again have the fastest car, Piastri and Norris in a class of their own. But whether it is Piastri or Norris who beats the other is anyone’s guess. Toss a coin.

The real wildcard is Verstappen. He seems to have a better handle on the car than he did in Hungary, and if the weather gods decide to intervene, the Dutchman could yet spoil papaya dominance.

This is McLaren’s race to lose. But if Verstappen is anywhere near them when the lights go out, all bets are off. Enjoy the Dutch Grand Prix!