Unlike Martin Brundle and all those other guys who do Formula 1 pre-race grid walks starting at the back and moving forward, I'll be different and start from the front where it's really interesting. Let's be honest, who wants to scroll down to see the good stuff?
The pecking order after Saturday's Qualifying for the 2025 season-opener Australian Grand Prix was not much different to the 2024 season finale last year in Abu Dhabi. On that night McLaren were also around four-tenths of a second faster than their rivals that night, as they were today in Melbourne, maybe a tad quicker.
I can't imagine Bruce McLaren calling his cars papayas, but then I did not know the man. Whatever the case he will be happy with Zak Brown's Boys putting the cars bearing that legendary name on row one in Melbourne for the Australian Grand Prix. As a New Zealander that would give him a kick.
Row 1: Lando Norris & Oscar Piastri
We have two drivers in Lando and Oscar both capable of winning races, probably nip and tuck who is better or quicker. Who's better at this stage? I'd give it to more experienced Norris by a smidgeon over Piastri. Now it remains to be seen if these two will work together into Turn 1 today in Melbourne and keep the Gate-Crasher-in-Chief from doing what he does best, let alone Russell, who will be yapping at their heels.
Of all the intriguing teammate battles that we're going to have this season. This pair starting from the front has set the stage for a Netflix blockbuster episode. So who will it be? Will the $25-million-a-year deal make for a more compliant Piastri? Doubt it, and for sure not at his home race.
Norris cannot expect handouts, and after last season will be wiser and hopefully more aggressive in an assertive way. Nice guys don't finish first in Formula 1, Lando needs to dig into his inner Bad Guy, much like Nico Rosberg did to win the title from Lewis Hamilton in 2016.
Having said that, while all the pundits will have Lando doing the business today, don't discount Oscar! The Kid from Melbourne could launch the biggest party the city has ever seen if he does the business on home soil. That's got to be inspirational for the 23-year-old.
Before we leave the front row, a big question to be answered at lights out at Albert Park today: Can Norris actually get off the line and lead into Turn 1? Ever?
Row 2: Max Verstappen & George Russell
On row two, we got Max Verstappen and George Russell right next to him. The two have a beef. We know that George told everyone he doesn't like the way Max drives, and Max doesn't care what George thinks or says. There's already potential argy-bargy going to happen there.
And George has got to prove to us that he's capable of close combat without upending his rivals or messing up all by himself, which he hasn't always been able to do in the past. Whatever happens, when the red lights go dark, expect him to be yapping at McLaren's heels.
But before that, Russell versus Verstappen could be juicy. The beef could evolve, especially if they both hunt for the same piece of tarmac as they will today. If I were a betting man, I would put money on Verstappen to win this one.
The Wishful Thinking Cop in me wants McLaren to do the business, but the Reality Check Cop in me, warns that their traditional nemesis - Verstappen - can do damage, and he'll be very wary of the fact that McLaren have a huge advantage right now, which might dissipate as the season evolves.
Thus the plan I guess is what Max did last year, 'steal' as many points as he can off them when everyone thinks big points are there for the taking by McLaren. He will do so. And the Dutch ace will take no prisoners and hold no punches.
Russell, on that hand, as Mercedes team leader, was giving sage advice to Kimi Antonelli, which I found quite amusing and filed away to process at a later stage. Geroge should focus on making sure he makes Turn 1 without breaking stuff.
Row 3: Yuki Tsunoda & Alex Albon
Heading up row three is the cheeky duo of Yuki Tsunoda in the Racing Bull and Williams driver Alex Albon. Few people will put money on those two featuring so highly up the order. Especially Albon, getting the better of Sainz was sweet for him
Tsunoda was especially impressive. Putting aside the Red Bull snub, deciding on Liam Lawson over the Japanese driver irked him. His fans can point to a stunning P5 showing which also suggests Racing Bulls have a decent car in their hands.
Which will help Tsunoda who wants to prove his paymasters wrong. Every time Lawson messes up, Yuki's a step closer to the Red Bull promotion. He has to prove he can deliver on race days and keep calm.
Alban looked like he was playing second fiddle to Sainz for most of the weekend, and basically most of the off-season, as Williams absorbed the media spotlight that Sainz brought to the team. Alban, of course, took full advantage of a car that's actually getting better and better, and perhaps his familiarity with it gave him the edge over Sainz.
He will start p6 and that's a very, very impressive for him. Whether the two of them on row three can stay where they are or they're going to fall down the order remains to be seen. We'll know what race pace of these cars have by the end of the Grand Prix in Australia today. For now, they're unknown,
Row 4: Charles Leclerc & Lewis Hamilton
It's an all-Red fourth row with arguably the two best qualifiers on the grid left starting from P7 and P8 on the grid. Not places where good cars should be starting from. Less so Hamilton, who can win from probably anywhere, provided he can get through the midfield melee, which is not a place he often toiled during his reign as king of Formula 1in the heyday of Mercedes.
As it stands, Lewis is in touch with Leclerc in terms of pace. Hamilton's raw speed at 40 is there but it is more his racecraft which will come to the fore if the stars align.
The glorious Hamilton-Ferrari honeymoon ended when he was unleashed into Qualifying yesterday, his first race in the Red of the legendary Scuderia, his first time without Mercedes power. Many of his Scuderia firsts do not count in his favour.
But it is early days, and few of the newcomers to teams this year have had a plain sailing induction to their new 'offices' for 2025. Leclerc on the other hand has the upper hand of the family and will have wanted to inflict more 'damage' to his new teammate than he did. Was the Ferrari preseason form a mirage?
Charles and Lewis will be expected to move up the order, no matter the form they encountered in Qualy. I suspect that the package is far better than it is, but someone forgot where the Go-Faster-Switch was on Saturday afternoon when it mattered. Even Lewis was flummoxed at the disappearing Prancing Horsepower as was perplexed Ferrari boss Fred Vasseur.
Row 5: Pierre Gasly & Carlos Sainz
Pierre Gasly and Carlos Sainz line up on row five, with Alpine still showing signs of having a competitive package as they carry over the momentum from last season. Pierre made the most of it and was chuffed with his pace.
Sainz would have wanted to outqualify his teammate Albon in his first outing as he single-handedly galvanised the team this winter ahead of his first race weekend. Caelos’s true genius is in race conditions. Let’s see where he ends up when the chequered flag waves to end the GP in Melbourne this afternoon.
Row 6: Isack Hadjar & Fernando Alonso
The best of the rookies so far, Hadjar lines up in P11 after making a strong impression in his first Formula 1 qualifying session. He has everything to prove in his maiden Grand Prix, and given his aggressive approach in junior categories, it will be intriguing to see how he handles the heat of battle in Formula 1. For now, he has done everything right and is the surprise rookie of the weekend—at least in Australia.
Adrian Newey’s arrival at Aston Martin has had little impact on the current car, as Fernando Alonso—Formula 1’s eldest statesman—finds himself alongside Hadjar, a driver half his age. The 43-year-old Spaniard, much like Hamilton ahead, relies on his racecraft to extract results.
But starting this far back could be a disadvantage if he gets caught in first-lap chaos. However, if things turn chaotic, Fernando is exactly the type of driver who will take advantage... provided the car is not so poor that he loses interest and parks it early.
Row 7: Lance Stroll & Jack Doohan
Once again failing to match the performance of his teammate., Stroll's form continues to raise questions about his long-term future in F1, but given that his father, Lawrence Stroll, owns the team, there is little external pressure on him to perform. Not sure why we should watch him to be honest.
Next to him is Jack Doohan, making his first Australian Grand Prix start, with his father, MotoGP legend Mick Doohan, in attendance. The young Aussie faces immense pressure and his season has only just started, with multiple drivers eyeing his Alpine seat, particularly Franco Colapinto in line, waiting for Jack to fall down the hill.
He is reportedly being given six races to prove himself worthy of promotion. Did Doohan impress today? Flavio Briatore might ask Ollie Oakes who would be correct if he answered: He checked all the necessary boxes, but he is not yet setting the world alight. His true test will come in the race and GPs to come.
Row 8: Gabriele Bortoleto & Kimi Antonelli
Gabriel Bortoleto, in his first-ever F1 qualifying session, outqualified his veteran Sauber teammate, Nico Hülkenberg. The reigning Formula 2 champion deserves credit for being the only rookie to beat his more experienced teammate, a feat that will do the Brazilian 'shares' the world of good.
In contrast, lining up next to fellow rookie Kimi Antonelli who should have been far higher up the grid but was once again undone by a costly error. This time damaging his car’s floor while going on an excursion during a hotlap in Q3. Inexperience or just overdriving?
Call it what you will, but the young Italian remains a gamble for Mercedes. While the team publicly backed 18-year-old (!!!) Kimi after his first F1 Qualifying session, it is clear that keeping things together over a full race weekend is a work in progress. Nevertheless, with a faster car than several drivers ahead of him, Kimi's recovery drive will be one to watch.
Row 9: Nico Hulkenberg & Liam Lawson
Veteran Hülkenberg will not be pleased to be looking at rookie teammate Bortoleto’s exhausts in front of him on the grid, but with his wealth of experience, The Hulk will expect to turn the tables in the race. However, Qualy in Saturday was a reality check for the Germans, and there are no excuses for being outpaced by a debutant.
The Lawson we all know has been AWOL this weekend Down Under. The Kiwi was expected to be the pick of the Young Guns (with 11 GPs on his CV, Liam ain't a rookie in my book) and expected more of him. His mandate from the Red Bull bosses is "to be within three-tenths" of Verstappen. This was not the case today when it mattered in Qualy.
With a faster car than most in front, Lawson will be required to do damage limitation and make a haul of points. The driver he replaced - Sergio Perez - last year Qualified P3 and finished P5 in the race. That is a togh act to follow for Red Bull's new driver
Row 10: Esteban Ocon & Oliver Bearman
Haas which saw Kevin Magnussen and Hülkenberg deliver respectable performances last year, seems to have taken a step backwards, now looking as if they are being run under the chaos of the Guenther Steiner era.
Two new drivers for this year is turning out to be a shot in the foot for the American team. Ocon has hardly set the F1 world alight during his decade as a Formula 1 driver and will be wondering where the performance Haas showed with P4 for Hulkenberg in Abu Dhabi three months ago.
Bearman did them no favours by crashing the car. Touted as Ferrari’s next big prospect, he had a nightmare weekend, resembling more of a struggling Logan Sargeant than the rookie who stepped into a Ferrari last year and scored points on debut.
Propping up the grid by annexing the back row for today's Grand Prix is not a good omen. And if the Haas is as bad in the race as it was in qualifying, they could be in for a long and painful afternoon in Melbourne today.
Who will win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?
That brings us to the real question—who would you bet on? As a McLaren fan, I would love to see Lando Norris win, because if they have a car that can dominate this season, he deserves to be given every opportunity to lead the team.
However, the nature of McLaren’s driver pairing means it will not be that simple. Norris will have to fight for every inch, as Piastri is not going to roll over for him winning his home race will be his target, even if he has to deal with fall-out for not 'obeying' whatever Papaya rules team bosses Zak Brown and Andrea Stella will engage.
That said, credit to McLaren for maintaining their position at the sharp end. Their development trajectory from last year was no fluke, and they have proven they belong among the frontrunners. Now, the real test begins: can they sustain this pace and convert one-two on the grid into the same thing on the podium today at Albert Park?
Who will win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?
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