2024 Formula 1 season to be defined by final six race weekends
F1 NewsTuesday, 15 October 2024 at 08:00
After a three-week break, we're back at the Circuit of the Americas for Round 19 of the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship, the first of six epic race weekends that should define this season.
As the F1 season heads to a magnificent climax, the two titles up for grabs will be all about McLaren versus Red Bull. The reigning F1 World Champions are in pole position for the drivers' title with Max Verstappen. Although Lando Norris is on a charge, it might be too little, too late.
McLaren are riding high. They lead the constructors championship for the first time in ages, albeit with a totally different team that Zak Brown has built and Andreas Stella leads, coupled to a mighty effective package they have for their drivers that can win on any given race day.
For the rundown to the finale in Abu Dhabi, the 2024 F1 constructors championship is McLaren's to lose. Red Bull dropped the ball long ago. Or, let's put it this way: Sergio Perez has been AWOL this season.
Red Bull is forced to fly solo, with Verstappen racking up nearly 200 more points than Perez has been able to. In fact, the Mexican veteran's form is on a downward spiral, and he has six races really to make amends and even save his career with the team. This includes his home race, where expectations will be extremely high.
In contrast, over at McLaren, both Oscar Piastri and Norris are delivering for the team. Thus, it really is theirs to lose. As for the Drivers Championship, I find it hard to believe that Verstappen will implode unless the wheels really fall off the Red Bull team.
Math says Norris has to outscore Verstappen by nine points in all of the next six races
Three of the next rounds feature Sprint Races, which means a whole lot of points on offer. But then Max only has to finish behind the McLaren driver to become World Champion for a fourth time and deny his mate a first one. But it will likely be very, very close.
Of course, the feud for the titles has captivating sideshows. How will Piastri and Norris engage in the forthcoming races? Will they work together? Will Piastri provide a few free passes to his teammate?
On the other hand, one has to be optimistic about Perez. He is due an upward curve on his lowly performance graph. He's a capable driver and a GP winner, although not this year. Be sure he can make amends if he can find the kind of mojo that once made him so highly rated.
The form book suggests no; Verstappen will be doing the heavy pushing not only for his own title ambitions but also not to fall further down the order as Ferrari is only 34 points adrift of Red Bull in the F1 constructors standings with stated P2 ambitions.
However, there have been three long weeks for Red Bull to dig out the form that saw the RB20 win seven of the first 10 races in Verstappen's hands. Since then, the World Champs all but imploded, leaving Christian Horner with a final chance one imagines. If next year they don't have a competitive car, AKA a winning car, he could be out of a job, some say.
Horner has his career to save in the wake of massive changes at Red Bull
After the mass high-level management exodus of the men that formed the backbone of Red Bull and all its success over the past two decades, they are now entering a whole new era, the team almost unrecognisable now than it was last year at this time.
Horner is adamant they have depth, the positions will be filled, and the differences will be negligible, but that's hard to believe in the wake of Red Bull's 'Wall Street-crash-like' form unseen in my recollection of following Formula 1.
A team that was romping to the titles with only a third of this season run (seven wins from ten, as mentioned), but suddenly the wheels came off mid-season. As if a switch was flicked. I detect a sense of desperation there, not only to keep Verstappen and his clan happy but also to find that elusive magic button that Adrian Newey seems to have taken with him. He has not influenced the RB20 since April.
Beyond the top two teams, of course, Ferrari will be there and looking for a couple of wins again. Sainz is in his final six races with a great Scuderia before moving to Williams for the next chapter of his career, while Leclerc awaits Lewis Hamilton as his teammate and may look back with great fondness of having Carlos beside him rather than Lewis. Time shall tell.
Hamilton is in his final six races with Mercedes.
Who would have thought that a year ago? That Hamilton would move to Ferrari for the 2025 F1 season. The races ahead will be his farewell to a team and a manufacturer that served him so well. The future only knows if Ferrari wins will be added to his incredible 105 F1 victories Sir Lewis scored exclusively with Merc-power.
I personally believe Hamilton's departure will liberate George Russell to take over as leader of Mercedes. Build the team around him and take it in his direction as they welcome Kimi Antonelli to the garage next year. He should be in it even sooner, as there's word he will be doing FP1 one again before this season is out.
COTA, Friday at the United States GP, was pencilled in as his next adventure behind the wheel of the W15, but that is not yet confirmed.
Beyond the top four teams, we have Aston Martin. Fernando Alonso, as always, takes whatever he gets and drives the wheels off it. While his teammate Lance Stroll tends to drive the wheels off it too, but literally,
But Aston Martin will be buoyed by the fact that Adrian Newey was lured away from Red Bull and will lead their Formula 1 operation in the future, although that future is not quite now. Maybe the Newey name simply associated with the team will find them a couple of tenths. But winning, even podiums, is unlikely.
Colapinto provides Albon with a wake-up call
Another intriguing contest between teammates has been triggered by the arrival of Franco Colapinto at Williams and providing Alex Alboin a wake-up call. The unlikely rookie has turned out to be one of the sensations of the 2024 F1 season, if not the biggest discovery of the year, because, before his promotion, he was at the expense of the inept Logan Sergeant.
With Carlos Sainz joining Williams next year. The Argentinian does not have a drive, but already he's impressed so much, it should be just a matter of time before he's on the F1 grid. For now, though, Albon will be truly measured.
The two could take a leaf out of the McLaren playbook, where the arrival of Piastri after Norris destroyed Daniel Ricciardo has forced the Englishman to up his game considerably. Every weekend, the pair tests each other to the limit. It has only been good for not only the pairing, the team, but also them as individual drivers.
James Vowles at William will be seeking for the same to happen because Sargeant was never able to really test Albon, whereas Colapinto has gotten out of the starting blocks by doing so from day one in the car.
It's exciting news over at Haas with Toyota onboard with immediate effect
Although all connected to the 're-entry' are denying Toyota is back in Formula 1 as a constructor. They claim it's just an advertising/branding/shared-tech partnership with Haas for their motor racing arm, aka Toyota Gazoo Racing. Where do I buy a Gazoo? Yeah, you know what? I mean.
It's definitely a feather in Ayao Komatsu's cap that he's been able to marry an American team powered by an Italian engine with the Japanese automaker, the biggest on the planet, producing 10.8 million cars per year.
And it's with immediate effect, starting at the United States Grand Prix, Haas' home race. It will be interesting to see how this story evolves. I've laid out my thoughts on where I think Totoya's 'toe in the-water' fact-finding mission will end up. Whatever happens, it'll definitely serve to motivate a team that's been very much on the up since Gert Steiner was sent packing.
For some reason, the Haas F1 Team has gone up a notch or two in my estimations, as have their performances. In 2023, they were last in the F1 constructors' standings, scoring a meagre 12 points in Steiner's last season in charge. This season they are in P7 with nearly all the points scored with six rounds remaining and only three points behind VCARB.
Ricciardo finally axed, Lawson promoted, Tsunoda worried
Red Bull's little' team finally booted our never-underperforming Ricciardo to return Liam Lawson to the cockpit, where he shone when he replaced the Aussie last year at VCARB for five races. Yuki Tusnoda will have to raise his game because, before Colapinto, Lawson exposed the fiery Japanese driver and is sure to test him again.
With the door to Red Bull apparently not opening for Tsunoda, Lawson is sure to use the six weekends he has on the grid to make a case for a promotion to the senior team as an alternative to Perez.
Beyond the above, it's ugly. It's sad. Alpine, aka Renault, are in total shambles. The Sauber-to-become Audi operation has already had a team principal change, and engines have not even been fired up in anger. They've hired journeyman Nico Hulkenberg to lead the project. Make that Andreas Seidl hired him, but the former team boss is exactly that: former.
The Hulk has never stood on a GP podium but tends to shine when his contracts are running out. His time has been mainly spent with struggling teams, it has to be said.
In contrast, Valtteri Bottas, who knows the inner workings of a world championship team, a Grand Prix winner, yet he's not sure he'll have a job next year, as the team apparently is looking at guys like Mick Schumacher and even younger drivers with less experience to partner Hulkenberg.
Without a great driver on board, is Audi doomed even before their first Formula 1 race in 2026?
This is mind-boggling, considering they need all the experience they can to bring this whole operation up to speed from the back of the grid. They're starting from zero. It's a blank canvas. And if you don't have a great driver in the project, you're doomed.
History shows that. As for their current performances, Guanyu Zhou, apart from his marketing potential, is not an elite driver, and he's taking up a very important seat. Bottas these days spends as much time at the back of the grid as he used to at the front when he raced from Mercedes. But that's life in Formula 1.
Finally, of course, there's the absolute sh*t show that Alpine has become. The sad demise of the Renault F1 engine production facility and the bolting on of Mercedes power units in 2026 must hurt French F1 fans. It's like having a Honda-powered Ferrari. Imagine the tifosi!
I do not know if I believe that Alpine will survive or be sold. The denies of a sale are fervent. If they do sell, then Renault CEO Luca de Meo is a blatant and outright liar, as he is adamant the French equipment is NOT for sale. His agent Flavio Briatore sings from the same hymn book as his retainer payer.
Two Italians and an Englishman in charge of 'saving' a French racing institution
If they can turn the thing into a team capable of winning with Briatore's consulting and the inexperienced but ultra-shrewd Oli Oakes running the show, it remains to be seen. Notably, two Italians (Flav and Luca) and an Englishman (Oli) are running the French show. Something does not sound right about that!
With a hopeless package, their Merc-PU only due in 2026, expect the next six races to be ones of pain for Alpine. Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly will do well to avoid each other as they toil at the wrong end of the pecking order.
As for the six races, every Grand Prix is fabulous. There's no question about that. Circuit of the Americas is an ultra-special challenging track that has taken over the mantle that Watkins Glen once held as F1's go-to F1 circuit in the USA.
Mexico City and Interlagos ooze passion, both a mainstay of Formula 1 for decades and capable of staging incredible race weekends, as history testifies. They are followed by relative newcomer venues for the Qatar Grand Prix and the Abu Dhabi finale, the Yas Marina Circuit, well known for producing some epic races and historic seasoned finales.
Starting Friday in Austin, Texas, local time starts a grand rundown of the final night of the 2024 Formula 1 Championship, on Sunday, 8 December. May the best team win, and the best man win. Stay tuned.
2024 Formula 1 Standings after 18 of 34 Rounds:
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