At Monaco this weekend Ferrari have the best chance to end Mercedes win streak

After Friday practice, Ferrari have every reason to feel encouraged. Lewis Hamilton topped FP2 ahead of Charles Leclerc, with the two Ferrari drivers separated by just 0.111 seconds as the Italian team locked out the top two positions in Monte Carlo.

The performance marked Ferrari's most convincing showing of the season so far and reinforced Palmer's belief that Monaco offers the perfect opportunity for Hamilton and Leclerc to challenge for victory.

Speaking to Lottoland media team, Palmer said: “I reckon he is. Ferrari will definitely win a race this year. That's my hot tip this early on. I think they will be in with a great shot in Monaco. I think I would put that on Charles because I think he's just such a Monaco specialist and it's his home race and everything else.”

Leclerc arrives at his home race carrying the confidence of victory in Monaco last year and appears comfortable once again around the narrow streets of the Principality.

Hamilton, meanwhile, has steadily grown more comfortable with Ferrari machinery and delivered his strongest Friday performance of the season by leading FP2.

Palmer believes Monaco is uniquely suited to Ferrari because it minimises the team's biggest weakness while maximising its strengths.

“The Ferrari  SF-26 is not only a brilliant chassis, but it's great off the line, which at the moment they still hold that advantage. However, the power unit on the Ferrari is their weakness and it's very difficult for a driver to have too much say on that.”

That assessment aligns with Ferrari's mixed start to the season. While the SF26 has often shown impressive pace through corners, it has struggled to match Mercedes on power-sensitive circuits where straight-line speed plays a larger role.

Monaco presents a very different challenge, Palmer explained: “But, Ferrari has a golden chance to win in Monaco because of the way that their car is."

Track position remains king around Monaco, where overtaking opportunities are scarce and qualifying often determines the outcome of the race. Ferrari's strong one-lap pace on Friday suggests both Hamilton and Leclerc could be serious contenders for pole position.

While Palmer sees Leclerc as Ferrari's primary threat because of his exceptional Monaco record, he believes Hamilton should not be discounted: “But they'll have other good circuits. And again, if Lewis can stay in, even in the position he’s in, he can stay close and fight.”

Hamilton's seven Monaco victories remain a record among active drivers and his confidence appeared noticeably higher after Friday's running.

Palmer also expects Ferrari to become increasingly competitive as the championship moves away from power-dependent venues: “So, you've got obviously Monaco, but other circuits as well, maybe Zandvoort, maybe Budapest, where Charles was on pole last year as well. Lewis has a great record in Hungary, possibly even Canada. They can be really competitive.”

“So there are going to be so many. And I think these early races in the season have probably been a bad mix of races for Ferrari because there've been a lot of power-sensitive circuits, which is not their strong suit. When we go to sort of twistier circuits, then I think we'll see Ferrari with a much better chance," predicts Palmer.

Friday's practice times suggest Palmer's prediction may already be taking shape. With Ferrari leading the way and Monaco traditionally rewarding chassis performance over outright power, the Scuderia head into qualifying with perhaps their best opportunity yet to halt Mercedes' impressive winning run.