Montoya: Verstappen won't be Hamilton's problem this year

Montoya believes Lewis Hamilton could win the 2025 Formula 1 title, depending on how his partnership with Charles Leclerc develops, and suggests that Verstappen will not be a challenge to Ferrari. However, he warns that McLaren’s driver pairing of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri could become problematic.

Seven-time Grand Prix winner, Montoya reasoned: "When anyone moves teams like Lewis, you’re always going to say that you're happier and feel more comfortable than you were before. That’s the standard corporate line.

"But I really do believe he wants to do it. I think he wants it really bad. He really wants to win. That's going to go a long way. It's hard to say what's going to happen, how good Ferrari is going to be. But you look at the car at the end of the year, it was the closest car to the McLaren. So being the closest car to the McLaren, you're not far off," said Montoya.

Ferrari team principal Fred Vasseur will have his management skills tested to the maximum, Montoya reckons: "The big thing is going to be the interaction with Charles and how all that develops.

"That's the biggest thing in my opinion; how well are they going to work together and whether Ferrari is going to do a good job managing them. It is in their interest, though, to focus everything on Lewis. I think they will.

"Publicly, Ferrari are going to say it's equal and will let them race," he went on. "But Mercedes was always equal! And last year, George started beating Lewis for the first time after Lewis said he was leaving. If Charles can play the game really smart, the team game, and understands that there's a lot to learn from Lewis, that’ll serve him well.

"It’ll be hard because Charles is a very complete driver. So, it's really hard to tell Charles that he has someone as a teammate who is going to teach him a lot. That's going to be really hard to swallow. If he can understand and respect that, he should just be nice and play along with things and say, ‘Let's develop the car, let's develop Ferrari to be world champion again.’

"I think it can be a big benefit because at the end of the day, if he's there or thereabouts all year long, then he's going to be in a shot to be winning races. If Lewis has a bad race, Charles can win the race. But if Lewis wins, he's going to be second and he's going to be there and he's going to be adding the points. And maybe at the end of the year, Ferrari goes: How about it?"

Montoya believes Red Bull's performance issues could prevent Verstappen from being a contender; he said: "Max Verstappen is not going to be Lewis’s problem this year.

"I'd be surprised if Red Bull comes out swinging like the last few years. Adrian Newey [now at Aston Martin after two decades with Red Bull] came out the other day saying that the problems at Red Bull are not as simple as they think it is.

"It's really difficult because when you believe what you're doing is right and all of a sudden things stop working, how far back do you go, and at what point do you go, ‘Is what we're doing now right or are we still wrong?’

"If you're saying you're building the car wrong and you realize what you're doing is wrong, then how convinced are you that what you're doing now is completely right? At some point, they have just got to go, ‘This is what we believe in and this is where we're going to put an effort in and this is what we're going to do and this is what's going to happen.’

"You just start moving sideways or even backwards. If you keep going forward based on the wrong basics, you're never going to get out of the hole. And that hole can be very deep, that's the problem," Montoya warned.

He is also wary of Verstappen’s racing approach; he said: "Max doesn't like losing. And Max is a guy who would rather crash than let you beat him. We saw it at the end of last year where he did things that people were shocked by. We were asking ourselves, ‘Why did he do that?’

"When he was going against Lewis and taking no prisoners, everybody thought, ‘Oh great. Finally someone is standing up to Hamilton.’ Now the positions are reversed.

"And you look at it, and now when the guy that is winning does something dodgy, they question it. That’s a new thing," he pointed out.

Montoya warns that McLaren’s decision to give equal status to Norris and Piastri could backfire; he said: "McLaren seem to have a very good understanding in how to translate everything they are doing into success.

"McLaren right now are the best team at identifying what is needed, telling the organisation what they are going to do, and making it work better.

"Initially, they're going to be pretty relaxed about it," he noted. "I think McLaren are going to be very clear that whoever's ahead they're going to have to be a little more respectful. They want to be fair for both drivers, but I think they understand that they cannot throw points away from them racing each other.

"Piastri and Norris are both in a good place with each other and I think they're being fair enough to each other. I think it could get ugly at the end of the year if they have a big advantage in points and they let them race for the championship.

"Otherwise, I think they'd be pretty even. McLaren has probably done the best job of keeping both drivers happy," ventured Montoya, tipping his hat to team bosses Zak Brown and Andrea Stella, whose management skills - much like their rival Ferrari boss Vasseur) are also going to be tested.

Ahead of the season open Australian Grand Prix, bookmakers are offering odds of 9/4 on McLaren driver Norris securing his maiden Formula 1 title in 2026. Next up is Red Bull’s Max Verstappen at 5/2 and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc on 4/1 in the latest projections, as the 2025 F1 season looks to be one of the most competitive in years.