F1 Betting: Kevin v Luis taking stock ahead of Imola

F1 Betting 220033-australian-gp-qualifying leclerc

Our F1 Betting Project (aka Social Experiment) heads to an interesting Sprint Race weekend at Imola for the Emila Romagna Grand Prix, Round 4 of the Formula 1 World Championship.

The race weekend at the fabled Autodromo Internazionale Enzo & Dino Ferrari has a new bag of tricks for our two punters, the Sprint Race on Saturday offering hitherto unexperienced opportunities to maximise earnings.

Before that here are is their respective summaries of a weekend of winning in Australia last time out:

Kevin: I turned my F1 Betting; all the way up, and I was rewarded with a small victory

Future Australian Grand Prix scheduling up in the air

I decided to start my betting on the weekend by once again putting at risk my winnings to date just as I did in Saudi Arabia, but in a more convoluted way.

Fastest in Practice 1 odds for the favorites:

  • Charles Leclerc @ 2.85 EW 1/5 for top three result; Max Verstappen @ 2.50 EW 1/5 for top three result
    Stake: $48; Return: $15.43 (68% loss)

I sat and thought the worst possible result would be that neither Verstappen or Leclerc led the session, but both would at least finish top three resulting in a 100% loss of my profit to date. That being said, crunching the numbers, had either driver led the session and both drivers finished top 3, the return would have been $15 or 31%.

It was a slam dunk, I was completely covered and it was impossible to lose in my mind; yet I lost. Carlos Sainz led the session, and a late lap from Sergio Perez bumped Verstappen out of the top three resulting in a healthy loss straight out of the gate.

Additionally, I was challenged by the time zone difference pushing the all session’s past my bed time. In response to my Practice 1 meltdown, I decided I’d arbitrarily put $40 split equally on Leclerc and Verstappen for Practice 2 but I fell asleep prior to the opening of betting for second practice.

I did wake up momentarily during Practice 2 and the odds did favour my intended bet to spread $40 across Leclerc and Verstappen, I simply wasn’t awake enough to place the bet falling asleep with my phone in my hand.

I decided to bet on Practice 3 but once again passed out long before the session and missed my window. It was a blessing in disguise as my intended bet would have resulted in a loss.

Fastest Qualifier odds: Sergio Perez @ 7.00; Carlos Sainz @ 7.00. Stake: $10; Return: $0 (100% loss)

By the time I had awaken into the early morning hours of my Greater Toronto Area immediate location, qualifying was already well underway and I had missed every possible bet available other than fastest qualifier.

At that point the odds were heavily on the side of a Leclerc or Verstappen pole position. I decided to place a $10 spread equally on Sainz and Perez hoping one of them would jump ahead of Verstappen and Leclerc and at the very least alter the odds so I could take advantage.

Sainz losing his fast lap mere meters from the line due to the red flag was a crushing blow to my position. I nearly tore my throat due to my inability to scream as my family slept.

Sunday, argh. [Canada timezone]

With my sleep pattern all screwed up, A Nascar night race at Martinsville and Supercross in St. Louis on tap, I began to ponder how I would juggle all the racing ahead of me, and just like that, at 7:30pm Saturday night, I went lights out and didn’t wake up until lap 20 of the race.

Once again I missed any opportunity to bet on anything other than the race winner. I immediately grabbed my phone and bet everything I had left on Leclerc.

Race Winner odds: Charles Leclerc @ 1.25. Stake: 73.80; Return $92.25 (25% win)

I turned it up; all the way up, and I was rewarded with a small victory. I didn’t have much of a choice but to roll the dice. It was high-risk considering I had not seen a single lap nor did I have any context of the race, I simply placed the bet blindly.

I finished up with an overall loss on the weekend. I look forward to a much more time manageable race in Italy next time out. I’m not happy with the final result although I’m well aware that Practice 1 bets are highly unpredictable, 50/50 at best and that’s before the hidden 25% skew in the bookies favour is applied.

  • Total Spent on this GP: $131.80
  • Total Return on this GP: $107.68
  • Total Profit made this GP: $24.12 LOSS
  • Total Profit made in total: $7.75 LOSS
  • Current Balance: $92.25

Luis: Going into the weekend in Melbourne we were already on the back foot

F1 Betting charles leclerc winner 2022 australian grand prix

The 50€ bonus I received at the beginning was gone and so were the profits made with that money (33%). This brought our total down to 112€. I’m not exactly sure why the bonus was gone (I assume because I didn’t spend it fast enough?), but it meant I had work to do in order to make up for the lost money.
Important lesson learnt: Read the fine print in these ‘special’ offers!

After 2 great outings in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, I had to complete the hat-trick with a nice profit here in Australia, especially after the 33% that was taken away from me prior to the race weekend.

I didn’t end up betting on qualifying, as I was too torn between Max and Charles and decided to bet directly on the race after Q3 had ended.

  • Verstappen Leclerc podium finish, Perez and Sainz top 6, Hamilton and Russell points @ 2.50
    Stake: 15€ Return: 0€
  • Perez, Hamilton, Gasly, Norris, Alonso, Ocon – All 6 Top 10 finish @ 5.00
    Stake: 5€ Return: 0€
  • Verstappen, Perez, Hamilton, Norris, Gasly, Alonso – All to finish top 6 @ 4.00
    Stake: 10€ Return: 0€
  • Charles Leclerc fastest lap @ 2.75
    Stake: 10€ Return: 26.12€
  • Leclerc and Perez podium finish, Hamilton and Russell top 6,
    Ricciardo and Gasly Points
    @ 6.00
    Stake: 10€ Return: 57€
  • Mercedes, Haas, Alfa Romeo – All 6 cars classified @ 2.37
    Stake: 20€ Return: 45.12€

By far my best outing so far. Healthy profits were made despite not betting on practice or qualifying. I wasn’t awake to watch the race so I can’t really comment on that, but waking up and checking my BetWay balance and seeing it higher than it’s ever been before, especially after losing 33% of my money before the race, was a pretty nice relief.

  • Balance before GP: 112€
  • Money spent on this GP: 70€
  • Profit made this GP: 58€
  • Total profit made: 70.37€
  • Current balance: 170.37€

Conclusions on our F1 Betting Project ahead of Imola

So there you have it. Luis edging ahead thanks to a stroke of some smart calls and good fortune merging while Kevin has some work to do – it is clear that fortunes can turn on a dime and what might be a deficit could easily flip into a cash lead.

And of course, it is very early days for our rookie F1 betting punters who are clearly gaining more and more experience, which will grow as the season progresses. For now it appears that knowledge of the sport does help when making the more sophisticated ‘spread’ bets that Luis is exploring while Kevin focuses on calling where drivers will finish.

This provides an interesting variance and benchmark of earnings. Two different approaches and styles are akin to the fabled ‘Tortoise vs Hare’ contest (F1 betting version!) at this early point of the season.

As for added value in terms of entertainment… Certainly adds to the immersion for now but will be interesting to see if that persists on a weekend of heavy losses, should they arise.

As mentioned for our F1 Betting project, the three days at Imola offer interesting alternative options to bet which will make for interesting reading when the pair share notes again next week. ‘Break a leg’ as they say!